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Rolla Peace News June 27, 2025 |
Dear Friends:Editor's notes:In this newsletter is: 1. THE MISFIT MATHEMATICIAN (Tom's column, http://tomsager.org) a) The People Speak b) Is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Dead? c) Who Won the 12-day War Against Iran? d) Climate Catastrophe Updated The People Speak On “No King's Day,” June 14, over five million people in over 2,000 locations in the United States demonstrated against the policies of the Donald Trump administration, which include his support for war, genocide and environmental degradation. In Rolla, over 500 demonstrated, likely the largest protest demonstration Rolla has ever witnessed. Photos on my website. Is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Dead? On June 22 the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. The United States (as a nuclear-weapon state) and Iran (as a non-nuclear-weapon state) are both parties to the UN Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) which entered into force in 1970 and now boasts 188 member states. This places the US in breach of Article IV to the NPT, which provides that: It should be noted that, except for some traces of enriched uranium dating back to 2003, found by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the behest of Israel, no evidence of Iran being in breach of its obligations has been found. And even if Iran were in breach of its obligations, nothing in the NPT gives the United States or any other state the right to unilaterally bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.“Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination.” Indeed, the traces of enriched uranium found by the IAEA may have been planted by Israeli agents, as some have contended. Regardless, the IAEA has found no evidence that Iran is working toward acquiring a nuclear weapon now. It should also be noted that Article X provided each party to the NPT: Certainly, the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, depriving it of its treaty rights under Article IV, provides such an “extraordinary event.”“the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance.” To date, Iran has not given notice of withdrawal from the NPT, although I have seen speculation that, in the wake of the bombing of their nuclear facilities, they might choose to withdraw. Indeed, former President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev speculates that another country may, in fact, give Iran a nuclear warhead. While not mentioning any particular country, North Korea certainly comes to mind. The NPT has been on life support for many years, due, in part, to the failure of the nuclear-weapon states to fulfill their obligation under Article VI to undertake to: Far from taking “measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date,” the world has witnessed the continued “modernization” of the world's nuclear forces. While the NPT does not define “early date,” 55 years after the NPT entered into force, with zero progress toward cessation of the nuclear arms race and nuclear disarmament, the nuclear-weapon states are surely in breach of their obligations under Article VI.“pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.” Indeed, we have witnessed the abrogation by the United States of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Agreement and the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement and the failure of the United States and Russia to implement a new START agreement to replace the expired START 1. In addition, Russia has revised its nuclear weapon posture to allow for the use of nuclear weapons when: Ukraine's June 1 “Spider Web” attack on Russia's nuclear forces could have triggered a nuclear response according to paragraph III.19.c of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, as revised in November 2024.“actions by an adversary affecting elements of critically important state or military infrastructure of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which would disrupt response actions by nuclear forces;” This response could have included the United States as well as Ukraine as paragraph II.11 states: Unfortunately, in today's world in which a state possessing nuclear weapons (Israel) can unleash a genocide against a state lacking nuclear weapons (Palestine) with impunity, access to nuclear weapons may be absolutely necessary for the security of many states. Keep in mind that Libya, which gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003, was destroyed in a civil war under NATO involvement, while North Korea, with its estimated 50 nuclear warheads and ICBMs capable of reaching Tel Aviv or Washington, has so far resisted all attempts at “regime change.”“Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack.” I would not be at all surprised to see other states without nuclear weapons go nuclear in the near future. Who Won the 12-day War Against Iran? So, who won the 12-day War Against Iran, perpetrated by Israel and the United States? — NO ONE! As the late Pope Francis warned: And this War is not over. We have only a (likely very temporary) ceasefire.“War is always a defeat — always, always.” As international human-rights lawyer, Craig Mokhiber points out, the attacks on Iran by both Israel and the United States are illegal under international law (not that one would expect either country to care). How much damage did the United States do to Iran's nuclear facilities? — anywhere from minor damage to total obliteration, depending on who you care to believe. (I suspect somewhere in the middle.) And how much damage did Israel and Iran do to each other? I suspect considerable damage on both sides with both sides capable of continuing the war in the future and further damaging each other. It was apparently unexpected that Iran would be able to recover so quickly from Israel's surprise attack of June 13 and launch such a damaging counter attack. It was also apparently unexpected that Iranians would pull together in support of their government and completely reject the regime change which Israel had hoped for. This is fortunate for those of us who would not like to see a wider war in the Middle East. I find it unlikely that Russia would stand for a coup establishing another regime beholden to the West little more than 100 miles from its border. Climate Catastrophe Updated“War is always a defeat — always, always.” Climate Catastrophe has been updated, perhaps (although not certainly) for the last time. The highlights contain a section on the out-sized contribution of War to climate catastrophe and one on wide-spread Spring Flooding, from south China to Nigeria to the Mississippi Valley. The floods brought to mind the Pete Seeger song, Waist Deep in the Big Muddy (“and the big fool says to push on,” song starts at 4:07 in video.) Yup. As we continue to degrade the global environment we all depend on, we spend our energies fighting with each other, instead of working together to strengthen our global environment. Indeed, we are “neck deep in the big muddy,” and still, “the big fool says to push on.” In the song, the captain who is leading the platoon across the river drowns and the sergeant takes charge and leads the platoon back to shore. But, where are the sergeants to lead us back to dry land? “But every time I read the papers Rolla Peace News is written occasionally (perhaps once a month) and distributed by email. It is posted on the web at http://tomsager.org (click on Rollaites for Peace: near the top of rightmost column).Wage peace, Tom yushasager (at) yahoo.com |