Climate Catastrophe: Graphs and Commentary


Short Version: click here for full essay

Ongoing essay: updated occasionally, last updated March 17, 2024

Climate data from NOAA unless otherwise stated.

Includes significant changes to NOAA's historic temperature data released in 2023.

Temperature anomalies from 1850-1900 average replace former anomalies from 20th Century average.

Disclaimer: I am NOT a climate scientist! and, most definitely, NOT an “expert!”

Major sections:

Some Recent Highlights

Other Recent Additions

Four Graphs and a Table



Some Meteorological Winter 2023-24 Highlights

(December 2023 through February 2024)


1. Meteorological Winter 2023-24 was the warmest meteorological winter on record, measuring 1.56°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average and 0.13°C warmer than the previous warmest meteorological winter 2015. The three months each tied or broke the 1.5°C barrier. February 2024 became the most anomalously warm month on record, 1.63°C above the 1850-1900 average.

2. The last nine months (June 2023 through Feb. 2024) were each the warmest month on record with that same name by up to 0.42°C. The six months (Sept. 2023 through February 2024) each tied or broke the 1.5°C barrier.

3. The average temperature anomaly from the 1850-1900 period for 2023 was 1.36°C, which set a record, being 0.16°C above the anomaly for previous record-holder, 2016. Some models place the anomaly for 2023 above the famous 1.5°C barrier.

4. The last ten 12-month periods ending in February (2015-2024) were the ten warmest on record. The tenth place 12-month period ending February, 2015, was 0.09°C. warmer than the 11th place period ending in February 2010

5. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological winter 2023-24 was 423.04 ppm, an increase of 3.47 ppm over meteorological winter 2022-23, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. This is the largest increase on record from one meteorological winter to the next. The 12 month running average (Mar. 2023 through Feb. 2024) was 421.70 ppm, up 2.98 ppm from the Mar. 2022 through Feb. 2023 running 12-month average. Meanwhile, global CO2 emissions continue to rise.

6. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index over the December 2023 through February 2024 3-month period was 1.8, down from the 2.0 average over the November through January 3-month period. The climate models are predicting that this El Niño will wane and transition to La Niña conditions during 2024. While strong, this El Niño is well below the strength of the 2014-2016 El Niño.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
7. As late as October, 2023, Climate models failed to predict much of the extreme heat of the latter part of 2023.

8. Not only land temperatures; but ocean temperatures too have increased significantly in 2023. 90% of all heat trapped by greenhouse gases ends up in the ocean. Ocean heat is wreaking havoc on our earthly weather patterns. The 11 months sporting the most anomalous ocean heat are April 2023 through February 2024 (the latest 11 as of this writing).

9. Fishing boats trawling the sea floor are stirring up carbon sequestered at the ocean bottoms, possibly tripling the carbon footprint of the industry.

10. A new study of sea-sponges suggests that we broke the 1.5°C above pre-industrial times barrier years ago and that the Earth had already warmed 0.5°C by the end of the 19th Century, which is a commonly used proxy for pre-industrial times.

11. Advances in battery technology make it economically feasible to replace fossil-fuel fired electricity generating plants with renewable energy generation, combined with battery storage for times when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. In the first half of 2023, 68 gas power plant projects were put on hold or canceled globally,

12. The United States' first small modular nuclear reactor power plant project was cancelled amidst delays, cost overruns and technological advances in battery technology.

13. Rising sea levels and melting glaciers are threatening to uncover and spread nuclear waste buried long ago by the United States in Greenland and the Marshall Islands.

14. Greenhouse gas emissions during the first two months of Israel's War Against Gaza amount to at least 281 thousand tonnes, more than the annual output of many countries. 99% of these emissions can be attributed to Israel, with only a minuscule amount stemming from Hamas and Islamic Jihad rockets. Almost half of these emissions are attributable to US supply flights to Israel. 281 thousand tonnes is probably a gross under-estimate, as it does not include the entire war supply chain.

15. Indeed, we are only beginning to come to terms with the vast amount of climate-wrecking emissions that global militarism wreaks upon us. Pundits have been babbling for some time about how climate change impacts our security and well-being. Little has been said about how war and militarism contribute to climate change. Perhaps 5% or more of greenhouse gas emissions are attributable to militarism. In truth, militarism makes us less secure in oh so many ways.

16. A new study estimates that Climate Change has killed 4 million people so far in the 21st Century, and that's likely a gross underestimate.

17. COP28 was yet another failure. Fossil-fuel interests and their lobbyists again got what they wanted as COP28 failed to provide any significant remedy for the ongoing climate catastrophe.

18. The world experienced 63 climate disasters in 2023, each costing a billion dollars or more. The previous record was 57 billion dollar disasters, set in 2020. The deadliest was Medicane Daniel, a hurricane-like storm in the Mediterranean, which killed over 4,300 in Libya and Greece (mostly in Libya). The most expensive was Typhoon Doksuri which caused 18.2 billion dollars in damages in China and dumped almost 30 inches of rain on Beijing, almost 50% more than Beijing's annual average.

19. The United States also set a record in 2023, experiencing 28 extreme weather disasters in 2023, each costing at least one billion dollar in loses. Leading the pack was the drought and heatwave in the South and Midwest which was responsible for $14.5 billion of the total $92.9 billion in loses and 247 of the total 492 fatalities. The previous record holder, 2020, experienced 22 such disasters.

20. The Smokehouse Creek Fire in the Texas Panhandle, driven by high winds and soaring temperatures, burned over 1 million acres killing two and forced the evacuation of the Pantex plant where nuclear bombs are manufactured. Smokehouse Creek is the largest fire in Texas history and may have been caused by a rotten utility pole that blew over in the wind. It's only February, folks. Wait until July.

21. The North American Great Lakes were virtually ice-free over much of the winter. As of March 7, ice coverage was a mere 2.2%.

22. US President Joe Biden has put permits for new export terminals for liquified natural gas on temporary hold. While hailed as a huge environmental victory, beware! Given Biden's environmental record, this could easily be reversed after the November election.

23. The $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which was supposed to expand green infrastructure is being used for highway expansion and may cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

24. California was pounded by two intense atmospheric rivers in early February.

25. El Niño has brought giant waves to the California coast. Wonderful for surfers; but tough on an erosion-prone coastline.

26. The Caribbean Island of Bonaire has sued The Netherlands for failure to protect it from climate change. Bonaire is a “special municipality” of the Netherlands. Special municipality appears to be a polite phrase meaning colony.

27. The Central American drought has disrupted traffic through the Panama Canal.

28. Nearly 11,000 in Ecuador were affected by heavy rains fueled by climate change and a strong El Niño.

29. While deforestation fell by 50% in Brazil's Amazon region in 2023, deforestation increased by 43% in Brazil's Cerrado grasslands to the south and east, wiping out a significant portion of the gain in the Amazon rainforest.

30. Central Chile, which has labored under a severe megadrought for over a decade, was devastated by wildfires that killed over one hundred and caused billions of dollars in damages.

31. The Congo experienced its worst flooding in 60 years, leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.

32. A new study has found that Greenland's ice sheet is retreating at a rate 20% above what was previously thought. Greenland is losing 33 million tons of ice per hour according to this study.

33. Amidst shifts in the Earth's crust, likely contributed to by the melting of glaciers in a warming climate, the town of Grindavik, Iceland is fighting a battle against lava flows from volcanic fissures that have lay dormant for 800 years and now threaten to engulf the town.

34. The UK will exit from the 1994 Energy Charter Treaty that allows fossil fuel corporations to sue governments for “lost profits” while transitioning to clean energy technology.

35. First Eurasia, then North America: were gripped by intense winter cold. 1,000 vehicles were trapped on a major highway in Sweden for 24 hours in an intense winter storm.

36. Russia, a major global supplier of fossil-fuels, complains of Europe's so-called renewable energy transition.

37. Cyclone Jasper struck northern Australia as a category 2 cyclone, causing unprecedented flooding. Jasper was the wettest tropical cyclone on record to hit Australia, dropping over 85 inches of precipitation in places.

Click here for highlights from previous months.



Other Recent Additions
The section on the possible relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and an unexplained drop in atmospheric CO2 has been expanded to the possible relationship between economic disruptions in general and decreases in atmospheric CO2. It appears in the full essay here.

And the following four paragraphs were added to the full essay during 2024:
(New Feb. 2024)
Indeed, as some have noted, climate scientists and their mathematical models have been unable to keep up with the fast pace at which our climate is deteriorating. Instead of predicting the future, they are constantly playing catchup. As Thomas Neuburger put it, “Everything in the climate prediction world is wrong to the slow side. Things are happening sooner than anyone thought they would.”

Click here for context in full essay.

(New Feb. 2024)
5. Indeed, a study of 300-year-old sponges by Malcolm McCulloch suggests that the Earth had warmed by 0.5°C by the latter half of the 19th Century. This would throw all pronouncements about global warming since pre-industrial times off by −0.5°C.

Click here for context in full essay.

(New Jan. 2024)
6. I note that climate scientists and other commentators now tend to use phrases like “reference period” or “surrogate” to describe the relationship between the pre-industrial period and the period: 1850-1900. This lends some clarity to the situation.

Click here for context in full essay.

(New Feb. 2024)
3. I note that commentators are beginning to deal with the huge contributions war and militarism make to global warming. See for example: Emissions from Israel’s war in Gaza have ‘immense’ effect on climate catastrophe, in which it is estimated that the first two months of Israel's War Against Gaza are responsible for more CO2 emissions than many countries contribute in a year. It is also estimated that global militarism is responsible for at least 5.5% of all human CO2 emissions, and this study was done before Israel's 2024 War Aginst Gaza.

Click here for context in full essay.

1. This graph compares each month separately to the 1850 - 1900 average (for months of that same name only) and ranks them separately. In other words: The month of March is compared only to other Marches. The month of September is compared only to other Septembers.

Note: The period 1850 through 1900 is used as a proxy for pre-industrial times by the IPCC and many others. See discussion of the IPCC and 1.5°C. below.

2. For example: The warmest March, June and October are all colored red. The second warmest January, August and December are all colored orange. The March colored light blue (2014) is between the 11th and 15th warmest Marches inclusive and is 0.98° C. warmer than the average of all Marches between 1850 and 1900 inclusive. The December colored yellow (2019) is the third warmest December and is 1.27° C. warmer than the average of all Decembers between 1850 and 1900 inclusive. Etc.

3. When there is a tie, the tying months are all given the highest rank. For example, May 2016 and 2023 are both colored orange (second warmest). No May is colored yellow (third warmest).
Table of warmest 12-month periods



Click here for context in full essay.


A 55+ year temperature graph: 12 month overlapping anomalies



Click here for context in full essay.


55+ years of CO in atmosphere: 12 month overlapping averages



Click here for context in full essay.


A 174 year temperature graph: 36 month overlapping anomalies



Click here for context in full essay.


###