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Rolla Peace News

May 21, 2024
Dear Friends:
Editor's notes:

This will be a short newsletter — only one item — a Guardian poll of top IPCC climate scientists that found that 77% believe the future holds a hot planet, at least 2.5°C above pre-industrial times. I think this poll is so important, it deserves a newsletter all to itself; so you'll have to wait until June to read about Julian Assange's next appeal, the ICC arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leadership and the ongoing Israeli genocide against Gaza. If you can't wait until June, there are plenty of other internet sites where you can read about these events.

The Rolla Peace Newsletter is published on an occasional basis (perhaps monthly or bimonthly).

Webperson's note:

If you are having trouble reading this, it is posted at
In this newsletter is:

1. THE MISFIT MATHEMATICIAN (Tom's column, http://tomsager.org)
Poll: 2.5°C Is Coming and We're Scared

The results of a Guardian poll of top IPCC climate scientists taken earlier this year are out. 45% of the 843 scientists polled responded. 77% opined that the Earth will warm to at least 2.5°C above pre-industrial times; and they are scared; and they are speaking out.

2.5°C! Think about what this means!

The 2015 Paris Climate Accords established the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times. We have reached or surpassed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 baseline in each of the last eight months.

Last week, Houston, the center of the US petroleum industry, was hit by a derecho with 100+ mph winds that blew out skyscraper windows. Think back to 2017 and Hurricane Harvey which dumped 40 inches of rain in places on the US Gulf Coast and caused $125 billion in damages. Even the center of the US petroleum industry is not immune to the ravages of global warming, of which it is a primary cause.

Look at the 29 Spring highlights (one short paragraph each) in my ongoing climate catastrophe essay. Think about the upcoming 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. It's likely to be a doozy with La Niña conditions predicted and ocean temperatures at record heights.

Two years ago, vulcanologist Bill McGuire wrote:
I know a lot of people working in climate science who say one thing in public but a very different thing in private. In confidence, they are all much more scared about the future we face, but they wont admit that in public. I call this climate appeasement and I believe it only makes things worse. The world needs to know how bad things are going to get before we can hope to start to tackle the crisis.
In my review of McGuire's book, Hothouse Earth, An Inhabitant's Guide, I opined:
“even more importantly, McGuire may give others the courage to speak out, particularly, his colleagues who continue to engage in ‘Climate Appeasement,’ the unwillingness to say how bad things really are.”
Yes, McGuire has given almost 300 climate scientists the courage to speak out. In this recent Guardian poll, they tell us just how bad things are and how much worse they are going to get.

So, no more of this, there is still time... We've run out of time. Either we're going to act now or we are going down — big time.

First things first:

End all wars. Use those trillions of dollars the world spends each year on its militaries to adapt to the climate change that is already baked in and to reverse climate change where still possible.

It will be a difficult sell to politicians, Wall Street moguls, and war profiteers who have grown fat on armed conflict. Are we up to it?

Let youth lead. They have shown us through their recent actions in many cities and on college campuses that they are capable of standing up to the warmongerers and climate wreckers.

And to all of us old folks: If we can't follow, at least we can still get out of the way.

In sum, I am pleased to see so many climate scientists speaking out and telling it like it is and I am pleased that The Guardian has polled so many climate scientists and published their responses. However, there were two major disappointments:

1. In discussions in the Guardian of the poll, there is no mention of war and militarism as drivers of climate change. Indeed, the only mention of war I found was that climate change could cause war. I found no mention that war causes climate change.

2. There was no mention of Bill McGuire's ground-breaking book, Hothouse Earth, An Inhabitant's Guide. I find it unlikely that, without McGuire's brutal honesty two years ago, we would be seeing these results now.

Appendix: Links to Guardian articles on poll of climate scientists:

Climate Failure Survey
Hopeless and Broken
Starting Families
Climate Actions You Can Take
World on Verge of Climate Abyss

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