Climate Catastrophe: Graphs and Commentary


Full Essay: click here for short version

Ongoing essay: updated occasionally;

Highlights last updated: Sept. 16, 2025;

Graphs and commentary last updated: Sept. 12, 2025.

Some recent additions or significant changes marked with (New [date])

Climate data from NOAA unless otherwise stated.

Includes significant changes to NOAA's historic temperature data released in 2023.

Temperature anomalies from 1850-1900 average replace former anomalies from 20th Century average.

Disclaimer: I am NOT a climate scientist! and, most definitely, NOT an “expert!”


A note on the name change

It seems that the names, “Global Warming” and “Climate Change” have recently been superseded by names like “Climate Crisis,” “Climate Emergency” and “Global Heating.” I don't think any of these names really express the gravity of the situation; so as long as we are changing names, let's go with the far more descriptive “Climate Catastrophe.”

See below for discussion of Crisis and Catastrophe


Some Meteorological Autumn 2025 Highlights

(September through November 2025)


(in progress)

1. The upwelling of cold nutrient-rich waters off the Pacific coast of Panama failed to materialize this year for the first time since record-keeping began, 40 years ago. The upwelling feeds fisheries and reduces heat-stress to coral reefs. Scientists are concerned that we may have passed a tipping point and the upwelling may not materialize in future years.

2. Disastrous flooding in Pakistan which began with pre-monsoon rains in June continues into September.

3. A recent study by Scientists for Global Responsibility estimates that an increase of $1 billion in military spending engenders the equivalent of 32 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

4. Leaders at the Africa Climate Summit call for a new global partnership that treats Africa as an engine of climate solutions rather than a recipient of aid. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, “We are not here to negotiate our survival. We are here to design the world’s next climate economy.

5. A new assessment of proposed techniques to geoengineer polar environments to fight climate change finds that they are dangerous, unlikely to work and a distraction.

6. Sept. 10 is the height of the North Atlantic hurricane season; but as of Sept. 10, 2025 not even a tropical depression in sight. All quiet on the Atlantic Front. The North Atlantic hurricane season has so far been a bust.

Some Meteorological Summer 2025 Highlights

(June through August 2025)


BY THE NUMBERS

1. The average temperature anomaly for meteorological Summer 2025 was 1.12°C above the 1850-1900 average, third only to meteorological Summers 2023 and 2024, whose anomalies were 1.28°C and 133°C respectively. August 2025 was the third warmest August behind Augusts 2023 and 2024, and 2025 is on track to be the third warmest year since record keeping began, also behind only 2023 and 2024.

2. The last eleven 12-month periods ending in August (2015-2025) were the 11 warmest on record. The two most recent such 12-month periods were by far the two warmest, with anomalies above the 1850-1900 average of 1.38°C (2025) and 1.48°C (2024). The anomaly for the next warmest such period ending in August 2016 was 1.24°C.

3. The estimated average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during Meteorological Summer 2025 was 427.63ppm, an increase of 2.50ppm over Meteorological Summer 2024, as measured at Mauna Loa. The estimated 12-month running average for September 2024 through August 2025 was 426.55ppm.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index remained in neutral territory, falling to −0.2 over the June through August, 3-month period. The ONI index has been mostly in neutral territory since the end of the 2023-24 El Niño episode.

HEAT

5. From the UK to Japan, the Eurasian continent experienced multiple summer heatwaves making 2025 the hottest summer on record for much of the continent.

6. The Eastern Mediterranean (Palestine, Israel, Jordan) has suffered from record-breaking “Hellish” temperatures this summer. Sedom, Israel on the Dead Sea experienced a record *OVERNIGHT LOW* of 97°F on August 12. The heat wave increased the suffering of Palestinians living out in the open in Gaza under Made-in-USA bombs dropped by Israel.

STORMS AND FLOODING

7. Hundreds have died in this summer's flooding in Pakistan, with millions affected. Punjab Province was particularly hard hit. Devastating floods also occurred across the border in India.

8. Texas experienced the deadliest flash floods in the United States in 49 years this summer. 138 died in the floods. Over the past 20 years, the US has also experienced its deadliest hurricane in 77 years, its deadliest tornado in 64 years, and its deadliest wildfire in 100 years.

9. Category 4 pacific Hurricane Erick struck Oaxaca, Mexico in June causing flash flooding and landslides and killing 24. Erick was one of the fastest-intensfying hurricanes on record, with maximum sustained winds increasing by 80 miles per hour over a 24 hour period. .

10. June flooding in the Congo kills at least 77.

FIRE

11. August wildfires on the Iberian Penninsula scorched 1.5 acres killing eight during a heat wave that saw temperatures reach 109°F.

ENERGY GENERATIONS AND EMISSIONS

12. China appears to have turned the corner on CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions in China fell over the first six months of 2025, according to Reuters.

13. China leads the world by leaps and bounds in generation of solar and wind renewable energy. Meanwhile in the United States, the Trump administration is canceling renewable energy projects in favor of polluting fossil fuels. Climate scientists note that the Trump administration's recent climate report is full of falsifications and misinformation.

Some Meteorological Spring 2025 Highlights

(March through May 2025)


BY THE NUMBERS

1. The average temperature anomaly for meteorological Spring 2025 was 1.42°C above the 1850-1900 average, second only to meteorological Spring 2024 whose anomaly was 1.47°C. May 2025 was the second warmest May behind May 2024. April 2025 was the second warmest April behind April 2024. March 2024 and 2025 tied for the warmest March on record.

2. The last eleven 12-month periods ending in May (2015-2025) were the 11 warmest on record. The two most recent such 12-month periods were by far the two warmest, with anomalies of 1.43°C (2025) and 1.47°C (2024). The anomaly for the next warmest such period ending in May 2016 was 1.21°C.

Some other models are showing significantly higher anomalies than NOAA's model. Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) estimates the anomaly for the 12-month period ending in May 2025 as 1.57°C above the 1850-1900 average, as opposed to NOAA's 1.43°C.

3. The estimated average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during Meteorological Spring 2025 was 429.42ppm, an increase of 3.16ppm over Meteorological Spring 2024, as measured at Mauna Loa. The estimated 12-month running average for June 2024 through May 2025 was 425.92ppm.

Hmmm, weren't the 2015 Paris Climate Accords supposed to bring down CO2 in the atmosphere? What happened?

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index remained in neutral territory, rising to −0.1 over the March through May, 3-month period. La Niña conditions lasted a mere two overlapping 3-month periods, without qualifying as a full-blown La Niña episode.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ENHANCES GLOBAL WARMING

5. Donald Trump is attenpting to cancel protection for the environment and the climate by presidential fiat.

6. Through executive order, Donald Trump has ordered increased logging on federally owned lands. Trees constitute an important carbon sink. The cutting of trees will release large quantities of carbon into our overburdened atmosphere and increase the speed of global warming. In addition, Trump has axed federal grants for wildfire prevention.

7. Prioritizing fossil fuels, the Trump administration opens up large areas of Alaska to oil and gas drilling and mining.

8. The Trump Administration fast tracks licensing of the Delfin LNG Deepwater Terminal, further endangering the health of Louisianans.

9. NOAA is under attack from the Trump Administration. This may make NOAA's forecasting and reporting abilities more difficult or, in some cases, even impossible. With hurricane season upon us, layoffs of NOAA hurricane hunters will degrade hurricane forecasting.

10. The United States is withdrawing from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, a collaboration among rich nations to help developing countries transition from coal to cleaner energy.

EXTREME WEATHER DISASTERS

11. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the world experienced over 150 unprecedented extreme weather disasters in 2024: floods, storms, droughts, heat waves, cyclones, ... and they are happening everywhere. No location on Earth is safe from extreme weather. By “unprecedented,” the WMO means more intense than anything similar that has happened in that location.

STORMS AND FLOODING
Lots of flooding — everywhere. Reminds me of the Pete Seeger song, Waist Deep in the Big Muddy (“and the big fool says to push on,” song starts at 4:07 in video.)
12. Hundreds die in Spring floods in Nigeria, among the worst flooding was the Mokwa flood of May 29.

13.Over 100 die in Congo floods.

14. South China and Tibet have experienced intense rains and catastrophic flooding, with many dead or missing.

15. After an abnormally dry winter in Uttarakhand in northern India, sudden heavy rains set off an avalanche that killed eight.

16. Monsoon rains arrived early in Mumbai on May 26, flooding the city. This was the earliest arrival of monsoon rains in Mumbai in 75 years.

17. Heavy monsoon rains cause widespread flooding and landslides in Northeast india killing over 30 and inundating whole villages.

18. At least 15 died as heavy rains flood Bah a Blanca, Argentina, with dozens of residents missing.

19. Floods in Bolivia place 200,000 head of cattle at risk.

20. Cyclone Alfred brought a devastating downpours to Brisbane, Australia. Almost five inches fell in a single hour.

21. An area in Queensland, Australia larger than the state of Texas flooded in April.

22. Floods caused by three days of incessant rains that brought four months worth of rain to parts of Australia killed at least four, with many communities isolated.

23. Spring has brought two devastating storms to the central United States. The first spawned 117 tornados including an EF4 tornado in Arkansas, with winds up to 190 mph. The outbreak was responsible for 42 fatalities. Rolla, Missouri was not spared. An EF2 tornado caused wide-spread destruction and power outages but no reported fatalities.

The second storm caused wide-spread flooding in the Mississippi valley and left at least 25 dead.

FIRE

24. Japan is experiencing its most destructive wildfire in 30 years. Thousands have been forced to evacuate. Japan and other locations that have been virtually free of destructive fires, are now experiencing increased devastation from out-of-control wildfires.

25. March wildfires spread through the area of North Carolina devastated by Hurricane Helene, feeding on downed timber left by the hurricane.

26. Wildfires broke out in the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea. The largely unpopulated DMZ has become a haven for wildlife. We need many more demilitarized zones. Maybe the Earth could become one big demilitarized zone.

27. Early season wildfires in central Canada burn out of control causing thousands to evacuate and affecting air quality as far away as the United States.

28. Israel experiences its worst wildfires ever.

HEAT

29. Excessive summer heat came early to South Asia and may have been a factor in precipitating the violent confrontation between India and Pakistan.

30. An extreme May heat wave in central North America sets records from Canada to Mexico. Northern Minnesota experienced an unheard of 100°F in May.

31. Increasing number of days of excessive heat in the last five years have led to increased risk of preterm birth in 222 countries. The risk in the US is highest in desert southwest cities like Phoenix.

32. The United Kingdom has experienced its warmest Spring on record and the driest in 50 years.

LEGAL

33. Even though a Peruvian farmer who brought suit against German energy giant, RWE, lost the case, the German court ruled, for the first time, that polluters can be held liable for damages due to climate change.

BIODIVERSITY

34. Butterflies, a chief pollinator, have declined 22% in the United States from year 2000 to 2020 and continue to decline. Major drivers of the decline are pesticides, climate change and habitat loss. This study included volunteer efforts from individuals and citizen organizations as well as from scientists.

ICE

35. In March 2025, arctic sea ice peaked at its smallest maximum extent on record.

36. Collapse of an alpine glacier has buried a large part of the bucolic Swiss village of Blatten.

SEA LEVEL

37. Sea levels are rising faster than previously expected. According to NASA, sea-level rise in 2024 was 0.23 inches, one third more than the expected 0.17 inches.

GLOBAL WARMING

38. The World Meteorological Organization suggests the possibility of temperatures 2.0°C above pre-industrial times within the next five years. This could spell the end of civilization as we know it.

DROUGHT

39. The Colorado River basin is running out of ground water.

WAR

40. Through January, 2025, Israel's War Against Gaza has generated the equivalent of 1.89 million metric tons of CO2, more than each of 36 countries taken individually.

41. From February 2022 through the end of 2024, five million acres of Ukraine have burned. Some forests may never recover. Since Russian troops moved into Ukraine, the War has added an estimated 230 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere.

42. Military spending continues to take precedence over spending to limit climate degradation, as Europe cuts climate funding in favor of spending for war.

COP30

43. Indigenous peoples are demanding a larger role in COP30 this coming November.

44. Brazil is clear-cutting tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest to build an eight mile four-lane highway to accommodate government and business elites at COP30, which is likely to, like the 29 COPs before, do little or nothing to slow climate change. I'm reminded here of a quote from Greta Thunberg: “I think it's very insane and weird that people come here [Davos] in private jets to discuss climate change. It's not reasonable.”

45. As Brazil prepares for COP30, Amazon deforestation so far in 2025 has increases by 92% over 2024 largely due to drought and fire.

CAPITALISM

46. The six largest US banks, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, have all abandoned the goal of reaching “net-zero” by 2050. It's quite likely that by 2050 there will not be much left for big banks to invest their money in anyway.

47. In the wake of the Trump Administration's attack on attempts to limit global warming, governments and corporations are abandoning all pretense of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. Brett Christophers points out that as long as the world is ruled by capitalist economics, it is virtually impossible for corporations to keep voluntary environmental commitments which limit their ability to amass obscene profits.

TECHNOLOGY

48. According to Bill McKibben, China's electric vehicle technology has far outpaced Tesla and other US made cars. For example, China's BYD now makes electric vehicles that can recharge in five minutes, or roughly, the time it takes to fill your tank with gasoline. Says McKibben, “It s bad news for America that our country has lost its technological edge. It may be good news for the planet, though.”

ENERGY

49. With help from China, Cuba intends to add two gigawatts of solar energy to its electric grid by 2028.

50. Nicaragua has broken ground on Chinese financed solar energy plant.

51. China has added enough renewable energy generation that its CO2 emissions have fallen year on year for the first time.

52. Canada is shelling out $30 billion annually in fossil-fuel subsidies, according to DeSmog.

53. Coal is back. In 2024, for the first time, India has produced over 1 billion tons of coal annually. Coal use continues to rise in China, although it is predicted to plateau in 2028. Meanwhile, here in the United States, where coal production has fallen, Donald Trump is trying to bring back coal. Globally, coal production appears to have plateaued.

54. The Keystone Pipeline spilled another 3,500 barrels of crude oil in North Dakota. Since inception, the Keystone Pipeline has experienced a total of 28 spills, leaking over 1.2 million gallons of oil.

55. Use of energy for artificial intelligence is predicted to quadruple by 2030. This huge demand for energy has led to a revival of coal and nuclear, technologies that are dangerous and/or climate unfriendly. We may be better off investing in education and natural intelligence, which is far less energy intensive and far more reliable than artificial intelligence.


Click here for highlights from previous months.


But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned: if the sword come and take any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity: but his blood will I require at the watchman's hand.* —Ezekiel 33:6 (KJV)

* I will hold the watchman accountable for his death.

Some Historic Temperature Graphs and Commentary
Monthly temperature anomalies: 2013-present

Table: Ten warmest 12-month periods

12-month overlapping temperature anomalies 1968-present

12-month overlapping carbon dioxide in atmosphere 1968-present

A very short term, one year, graph of CO2 in the atmosphere

The missing graphs

3-year overlapping temperature anomalies: 1850-present

Notes on the IPCC and 1.5°C and Avoiding Extinction.

Can Science Save Us?

Discussion of Climate Crisis and Climate Catastrophe

The Future

Global Temperatures: 1700 years (Michael Mann)

Global Temperatures: 11,300 years (Holocene) (Shaun Marcott)

Global Temperatrures: 800 thousand years (Pleistocene, Holocene)

Global Temperatures: 66 million years

Global Temperatures: 542 million years

Highlights from previous months



How to read this graph:
1. This graph compares each month separately to the 1850 - 1900 average (for months of that same name only) and ranks them separately. In other words: The month of March is compared only to other Marches. The month of September is compared only to other Septembers.

Note 1: The period 1850 through 1900 is used as a proxy for pre-industrial times by the IPCC and many others. See discussion of
the IPCC and 1.5°C. below.

Note 2: NOAA gives anomalies from the 20th Century average in its climate at a glance section. The anomaly for any given month, say June 2024, from the 1850-1900 average is computed by subtracting the average anomaly from the 20th Century average for all Junes in the 1850-1900 range from the anomaly from the 20th Century average for June 2024.

2. For example: The warmest February, June and October are all colored red. The second warmest January, September and November are all colored orange. July 2014 is the 16th warmest July, so it is colored dark blue. (lies between the 16th and 20th warmest Julies inclusive) It is 0.75° C. warmer than the average of all Julies between 1850 and 1900 inclusive. October 2015 is colored yellow and is the third warmest October and is 1.24° C. warmer than the average of all Octobers between 1850 and 1900 inclusive. Etc.

3. When there is a tie, the tying months are all given the highest rank. For example, August 2023 and 2024 are both colored red (warmest). No August is colored orange (second warmest).
Some points to note:
1. The data for this graph come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s climate at a glance section.

2. This graph gives the Earth's approximate average surface temperature relative to the base period, 1850-1900 for each month. Needless to say, distilling the world's climate into one number per month is a gross over-simplification. Further, surface temperature is only part of the story. Temperatures in the upper atmosphere and ocean depths contribute to surface anomalies through convection and heat exchange.

3. Temperature anomalies are not distributed equally around the globe. A map in this article from CBS news shows that the Arctic has warmed to a far greater degree than average. The North Atlantic, where a weakened Gulf Stream terminates, has actually cooled.

4. The 27 months, June 2023 through August 2025 were each among the warmest three month on record with that same name (although not the 27 most anomalously warm months on record). All 27 months had anomalies between 1.19 and 1.62 inclusive.

(New Nov. 2024)
5. There are now 13 months with temperature anomalies equal to or greater than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. They are Feb. and Mar. 2016, Sept. 2023 through March 2024, Oct. and Nov. 2024 and Jan. and Mar. 2025. The last four are the only such temperature anomalies to occur outside of an El Niño episode. (This would seem to augur ill for our climate.)

6. Meteorological Summer 2024 was the warmest meteorological Summer on record
, Meteorological Summer 2025 placed third, behind meteorological summers 2023 and 2024,

7. Antarctica experienced its lowest sea ice extent on record throughout most of 2023. Thousands of penguin chicks died because of the warming climate. The annual maximum sea ice extent reached in September 2023 was the lowest on record.

(New Feb. 2025)
8. Mid-February 2025 saw the
lowest combined Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extent on record, at 15.76 million km2

9. Ocean temperatures rose precipitously beginning in April 2023. Ocean temperatures off the coast of Florida reached hot-tub levels, 101.1°F in July 2023. For the world's oceans, The 29 months, April 2023 through August 2025, were (along with Jan. 2016) our ocean's 30 most anomalously warm months on record.

10. June 2021 tied for the eighth warmest June globally, but was the warmest June in North America. It was responsible for the Pacific Northwest heat dome which killed an estimated 1400 people and was thought at the time to be the most extreme heat event that Planet Earth has experienced since record keeping began.

11. In early 2023 NOAA made significant modifications to its historic data. Some monthly temperature anomalies changed by as much as 0.22°C. This is to be expected. As we learn more and our historical knowledge grows, our numeric results should become increasingly accurate. NOAA continues to revise its historic temperature estimates, although changes lately have not been quite so drastic.

12. In spite of the wide month to month variation, this graph shows a short term rising trend from 2013 to the present. The large crests in early 2016 and late 2023 through early 2024 roughly follow strong El Niño episodes and the lesser crest in early 2020 follows behind a weak El Niño. The troughs in between these crests roughly correspond to La Niña episodes.

13. 2010 (also an El Niño year) was the warmest year on record before this graph. It was surpassed by 2014, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024 (in that order) as the warmest year on record. 2024 was 1.45°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average and 0.10°C warmer than second place 2023. (Note: Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) pegs 2024 as 1.60°C above the 1850-1900 average.)

14. July 2024 was the warmest July on record, 0.03°C warmer than second place July 2023. Since July tends to be the warmest month of the year, July 2024 may well be the warmest month on record despite the unprecedented heat of the following months.

15. All but ten of the months within the last 10 years (Sept. 2015 through August 2025 inclusive) were among the ten warmest months with that same name. All but one were in the top 15.

16. The last month with a negative anomaly (distance from the 1850-1900 average, a common proxy for pre-industrial times, used by the IPCC and others) was October 1976. The last month with an anomaly less than 0.75°C was July 2013. The highest anomaly was in February, 2024, 1.62°C.

17. Other models, such as ERA5, which is now used at the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) give somewhat different results. For example CCCS shows the anomaly above the 1850-1900 base for year 2024 as 1.60°C as opposed to NOAA's 1.45°C. CCCS gives a rough comparison of several popular climate models here.

Which model is correct? All and none. Models are simply simplifications of the real world. No model of a complex system is exact (otherwise it wouldn't be a model). Complex mathematical models are full of assumptions and educated guesses. Nevertheless, short of clairvoyance, they appear to be the best we have; so yes, use them and refine them; but one would be wise not to put too much trust in them, particularly in times of rapid change.

(New Feb. 2024)
Indeed, as some have noted, climate scientists and their mathematical models have been unable to keep up with the fast pace at which our climate is deteriorating. Instead of predicting the future, they are constantly playing catch-up. As Thomas Neuburger put it, “Everything in the climate prediction world is wrong to the slow side. Things are happening sooner than anyone thought they would.” Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has remarked, “We were really far off, and we don t know why.”

18. The last ten 12-month periods ending in August (2016-2025) have been the ten warmest on record, each with an anomaly greater than 1.0°C. The 11th warmest 12-month period ending in May (2015) was 0.04°C cooler than the tenth warmest. (See table below.)
19. Temperatures appear to have risen about 0.43°C. over the last ten years (difference between average anomaly of 36 months ending in August 2025 and average anomaly of 36 months ending in August 2015).
Why is this graph important?
1. This is a “you can't see the forest for the trees” graph. Forests are important; but so are individual trees. Indeed, there is no forest without the individual trees.

2. This graph allows you to see the present in detail. (present here meaning the approximate average monthly surface temperature over the latest 12 years.)

3. You can get a similar graph from NOAA's Climate at a Glance section; but I like the way this graph presents the data. I think the color coding increases readability and presents important data, and the change of base to 1850-1900 is consistent with the use of the 1850-1900 period as a proxy for pre-industrial times.

4. Why 12+ years? Why not some other period like 7 or 15 years? No particular reason. With a longer period the lines get squished together and are harder to read. Shorter periods show less data. This started out as a ten year graph but has grown longer or shorter as I add or remove months.

5. From here on, this graph and others below will be updated only occasionally, perhaps once a quarter.

6. How did I get into this? In 2016 my favorite website for news and commentary, Common Dreams, used to report the NOAA data month after month as they set new records. They stopped when September 2016 fell to second place. Being curious, I went to the NOAA site and wondered why it wasn't reported as news that the three warmest Septembers on record were in 2015, 2016 and 2014 (in that order). After a few months of silence, I decided to start reporting these data myself. (Sept. 2016 has since been upgraded and now surpasses Sept. 2015.) Both Septembers 2015 and 2016 have been surpassed by Septembers 2020, 2023 and 2024.

A longer term temperature graph — 56+ years


1. This 56+ year graph of 12 month overlapping periods measures the temperature anomaly from the 1850-1900 average. The colors refer to the El Niño / La Niña (ONI) condition during the three month interval centered on the final month of the 12 month period.

2. The 12 month running average rose consistently throughout 2023 and the first eight months of 2024 as La Niña conditions waned and gave way to strong El Niño conditions, reaching 1.48°C in August 2024.

3. El Niño / La Niña (ENSO) refers to cyclical changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns over the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño episodes usually bring warmer global surface temperatures; La Niña episodes usually bring cooler surface temperatures. There is a brief explanation of El Niño and La Niña here.
An ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) is computed for each overlapping period of three consecutive months based of conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. If the ONI index is at least 0.5 (at most -0.5) the three-month period is considered an El Niño (La Niña) period. Five or more consecutive El Niño (La Niña) periods are considered an El Niño (La Niña) episode. An El Niño episode is very strong (strong, moderate, weak) if it contains three El Niño periods with index at least 2.0 (1.5, 1.0, 0.5). A La Niña episode is strong (moderate, weak) if it contains three La Niña periods with index at most -1.5 (-1.0, -0.5). These classifications are somewhat arbitrary.
4. The ENSO condition can cause significant changes in global surface temperatures. The table below gives estimates of annual global surface temperature anomalies relative to the 20th Century for the six calendar years ending in 2020, assuming neutral ENSO conditions had prevailed throughout. According to these estimates, year 2020 would have been the warmest of the six years by 0.03°C.


(New Jan. 2023)
5. More recently, in early 2023 it was estimated that without the El Niño / La Niña effect, 2020 would have become the warmest year in the record, followed by 2022.

6. This graph is surprisingly smooth in spite of all the crests and troughs.

7. Exceptionally high temperature crests have followed the two very strong El Niño episodes of 1997-98 and 2014-16. Surface temperatures have fallen after the end of these El Niño episodes but remained much higher than before the El Niño episode began. This happened to a lesser extent after the moderate El Niño episode of 2009-2010.

8. We reached another high temperature crest in August 2024. 12-month averages have fallen slightly since August. The 2023-24 El Niño episode ended in the Spring, but the warming effects of El Niño tend to continue for a few months beyond the end of an El Niño episode .

9. This graph consists of a progression of waves (heat waves) with increasingly high crests and troughs. Crests and troughs are marked with black dots and connected with black lines.
Crests are local maxima which are greater than or equal to all readings to the left. Troughs are local minima that are lower than or equal to all readings to the right. If more than one crest lies between two troughs only the rightmost crest is marked. If more than one trough lies between two crests only the leftmost trough is marked.
10. Crests have increased from a height of 0.38° C. (above the 1850-1900 average) in 1973 to 1.48°C in the Summer of 2024. Troughs increased from a height of 0.07° C. in 1976 to 1.02° C. in 2021. On the whole, temperatures appear to be accelerating at a super-linear rate.

11. Climate-wise, extrapolation and long-term prediction are very risky endeavors. However, looking at the two graphs above, it seems likely that the next strong El Niño will bring 12-month running averages well above the 1.5°C barrier. Some climate models already place the 12-month running average above 1.5°C, perhaps even close to 2.0°C. (But don't worry folks, the IPCC says 12-month averages don't count. We should all wait for a 20-year average.)

12. In short: We're in terrible trouble. We better do something quick.

Another 56+ year graph — CO2 in the atmosphere


1. The data for this graph come from the average monthly readings for CO2 in the atmosphere, taken at the Mauna Loa / Maunakea sites in Hawaii. Each line in the graph is a weighted average of 12 consecutive months. (E.g.: The line for March 2018 is the weighted average of April 2017 through March 2018.)
Note: In February 2021, NOAA updated its monthly readings from the WMO CO2 X2007 scale to the WMO CO2 X2019 scale. Due to this change in scale, some monthly readings have changed by as much as 0.32 ppm (parts per million) and some 12 month averages have changed as much as 0.25 ppm. The entire graph above has been updated to the X2019 scale which is described here.

Note: Because of volcanic eruptions at Mauna Loa, from December 2022 through July 4, 2023, readings were taken at the nearby Maunakea observatories.
2. The average concentration of CO2 at Mauna Loa for the 12 months ending in August, 2025 is 426.55 ppm. The global average is thought to be somewhat less than the readings at Mauna Loa.

3. CO2 (and other greenhouse gases like methane) in the atmosphere act like a one way glass allowing incoming electromagnetic radiation from the sun to pass through the atmosphere, but trapping outgoing radiation from the Earth, thereby warming the planet.

4. For each month since the end of 1974, the change in the 12-month running average from month to month has been positive. The monthly changes since 1968 ranges from -0.03 to 0.37 ppm. The maximum month-to-month change of 0.37 ppm occurred in March 2024.

5. The average yearly increase over the period covered by this graph (since 1968) is 1.83 ppm (parts per million). The average yearly increase over the past decade is 2.64 ppm, 45% above the average yearly increase since 1968.

6. The increase from the 12 months ending in January, 2024 to the 12 months ending in January, 2025 was 3.57 ppm, 96% above the average 12-month increase since 1968. This is a record increase for any two consecutive non-overlapping 12-month periods

7. Meanwhile, global CO2 emissions continue to rise. We appear to be walking backwards away from the Paris Climate Accord goals.

8. In August 2023 the 12-month running average exceeded 420 ppm for the first time since record-keeping began. 420 ppm is 50% more than the 280 ppm thought to be the pre-industrial concentration. The 12 month CO2 concentration has now surpassed 426 ppm.

9. The monthly record for the year for CO2 in the atmosphere is typically set in May, when northern hemisphere trees come out of dormancy and begin to sequester CO2 in earnest. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere typically fall from June through September and then rise again from October through May as northern hemisphere trees go into winter dormancy.

(New Aug. 2024)
10. A ground-breaking 2024 study by the US Forest Service found that in spite of wildfires, insects, drought, logging and other stressors, the
world's forests have mostly maintained their ability to sequester carbon over the past 30 years. The study recommends less deforestation, more reforestation.

11. One usually sees these graphs of CO2 in the atmosphere as a succession of waves rising higher each year (Keeling curve); but I like this graph of 12 month running averages, because it shows the steady month to month increases of CO2 in the atmosphere. Also, the almost solid gray at the bottom of the graph gives the impression of CO2 rising and filling the atmosphere. (CO2 is actually a transparent colorless gas.) Some folks like the waves better and liken them to the rhythm of the Earth breathing.

12. In addition, this graph demonstrates through its concavity that the change in the running 12 month average of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing, particularly since the start of the 2023-24 El Niño episode.

13. The month of February, 2025 set a new record for CO2 in the atmosphere, 427.09 ppm, surpassing the record set in May 2024 by 0.18 ppm. Over the period covered by this graph, the month of February never set a record until 2010. Of the 15 Februaries ince 2010, 6 more have set a record as the month with the highest concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. This could reflect an increase in CO2 produced by human activity, a failure of forests, oceans or other carbon sinks to absorb CO2, and/or other factors. In truth, we'll never attain the goals of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord this way.
 
(New Nov. 2023)
A very short term, 1 year, graph of CO2 in the atmosphere



1. This graph of 30-day average concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa begins in November 2019 and runs through December 1, 2020.

2. During the period, December through May, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere should be expected to increase, leveling off or beginning to decrease toward the end of May.

3. In December, the 2019 novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was confirmed. The ensuing pandemic caused a sharp decrease of economic activity in China, where the pandemic started.

4. 30-day average concentrations of CO2 appear to have quickly responded, beginning to level off in mid-February, peaking at 414.43 ppm during the 30 days ending on February 25, and falling to 414.06 ppm by the 30 days ending on March 13. This cannot easily be explained by simple natural variation (see
An Inquiry into a Possible Relationship between Socio-Economic Disruptions and Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations).

(New Aug. 2025)
5. 30-day average concentrations of CO2 rose again to 414.80 by the 30 days ending on April 1 and peaked at 417.32 by the 30 days ending on May 28, seeming to make up for the mid-February through mid-March decrease. A possible explanation might be the resurgence of economic activity in China concomitant to the Chinese bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control in China. However, I now favor the conjecture that there was simply a
delay in making up for the fall in anthropogenic CO2 emissions by “sucking” CO2 from carbon sinks such as our oceans. The blue area on the graph represents expected atmospheric CO2 concentrations between February and April inclusive that do not appear in the record.

6. It would seem that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere did not respond to the pandemic in other countries the way they did in China.

7. “Experts” claim that this dip in CO2 concentrations could not possibly be caused by the pandemic induced economic slowdown; however, to my knowledge, they have no other explanation to offer, except natural variation, which seems highly unlikely.

8. The only other recent years that have exhibited similar behavior were 2008 and 2022. 2008 was a year of another great economic disruption that started in late 2007. 2022 also saw great economic disruptions from the Russo-Ukrainian War which began on Feb. 24, 2022. 2008 and 2022 both exhibit a far more pronounced February-March dip than 2020. The chance of this unusual behavior, appearing in the only three recent years that came at the start of a great economic upheaval, being due to natural variation are minuscule. No other recent year has exhibited such an economic disruption or such a February-March dip in atmospheric CO2.

9. If the conjecture that the dip in atmospheric CO2 was caused by the economic disruptions holds, it is possible that we could reverse global warming by simply suspending much of our economic activity.

10. However, it should be noted that this has had little, if any, overall effect on atmospheric CO2. Average atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose by 2.36 ppm in February 2020 over February 2019 and by a somewhat greater amount in each subsequent month through November 2020. In addition, CO2 emissions, which had fallen during 2020, rebounded and by 2022 had surpassed 2019 levels. By comparison, the 56+ year average 12-month increase in atmospheric CO2 is 1.83 ppm. (See previous graph.)

11. I find this graph of 30-day running averages interesting as it contains short-term information that gets lost in viewing only monthly graphs.

12. The above graph is surprisingly smooth except for the “missing piece” for the 30-day periods between late February and early April. I liken the missing piece to the bite of a huge dragon. My wife thinks it is more like the nibbles of a bevy of bunnies.
The missing graphs

Here should go historic graphs on global land use, droughts, desertification, floods, cyclones, wildfires, etc. Sadly, I have no such graphs, and not even the data to make them. Maybe later.

1. Climate v. Weather: Weather is what you see outside your window. It changes hour by hour, day by day. Climate is the sum total of weather (and other factors) over a period of years, decades, centuries or longer. Yes, it changes too; but in most cases, slowly. Anthropogenic climate change is climate change caused by human activities.

2. Weather is by nature extremely variable and extreme events have, at least until recently, been by nature rare. This makes it difficult to attribute any particular extreme weather event to climate change. And because such events are rare, it is difficult to achieve statistical significance. Another difficulty is that minor differences in weather related variables can make the difference between a devastating event (like Hurricane Harvey in 2017) and an event that causes far less destruction (like Hurricane Barry in 2019).

(New Jan. 2022)
3. Lately, extreme weather events have become more extreme and more common. The World Meteorological Organization has found that between 1970 and 2019, extreme weather disasters driven by climate change have increased five fold, killing more than two million people and costing $3.64 trillion in total losses.

4. Consider: Devastating fires in California in 2020, 2021 and 2025; exceptional heat, drought, floods and fires during both Australia's 2018-19 and 2019-20 summer; record-breaking heatwaves in the Arctic, a record breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and a near record breaking season in 2021; 1/3 of Pakistan flooded in 2022, and the longest, most intense and most ubiquitous heatwaves ever recorded in 2023 and 2024. Climate models can help to explain these events. I've yet to see any other reasonable explanation.

(New June 2022)
5. However, attempts to attribute individual weather events to climate change have been, for the most part, disappointing. This
June 2022 article from Science may give you a feeling for how little progress we've made in attributing individual events to climate change.

(New June 2022)
6. Even so, there comes a time when one must say that natural variation and coincidence are so unlikely that they must be discounted. The sheer number, destructiveness and variety of recent extreme weather-related events, as well as the lack of any reasonable explanation other than climate change, leaves little room for doubt that in the aggregate, climate change is at fault.

(New June 2022)
7. The June 2021 heat dome over western North America may have been at the time the most extreme heat event recorded on Earth. Climate models, however, were unable to predict the occurrence of such an extreme event.

(New June 2022)
8. The World Weather Attribution Initiative declared at the time that the June 2021 heat dome would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. This statement may well have been an “overreach.”

(New September 2023)
9. Nor were climate models able to predict the extreme widespread heat which lasted throughout the summer of 2023 and affected every continent. Indeed, climate models have been unable to keep up with the fast pace at which our climate is deteriorating.

10. I think that no one has understood the relationship between climate and weather better than Joseph Conrad, who wrote in Typhoon (1902):
Had he been informed by an indisputable authority that the end of the world was to be finally accomplished by a catastrophic disturbance of the atmosphere, he would have assimilated the information under the simple idea of dirty weather, and no other, because he had no experience of cataclysms, and belief does not necessarily imply comprehension.
11. Conrad's Captain MacWhirr sailed his ship into the eye of a typhoon, and then brought her battered and bruised into port. Would that the captains of our Ships of State could show such dedication and tenacity.

(New Jan. 2022)
12. Joseph Conrad was a sailor during the latter part of the 19th Century. He knew weather as few do today, and had a healthy respect for the power inherent in natural forces. Consider this quote from Heart of Darkness (1898):
And this stillness of life did not in the least resemble a peace. It was the stillness of an implacable force brooding over an inscrutable intention. It looked at you with a vengeful aspect.

1. This graph (also from NOAA data) of 36 month overlapping averages (each 36 month period ending in the month with the same name as the latest month for which data is available) from 1850 to the present shows a longer term rising trend, with an increasing rate of warming in recent years.

2. I like 36 month overlapping graphs. I think they smooth the data, but not too much. You can view 12 month or 60 month overlapping graphs at
NOAA's Climate at a Glance section too.

3. There have been various pronouncements that global warming stopped in 1998 (or some other recent year) and global cooling began. This graph demonstrates clearly, without the need for any statistical analysis, that no such thing has happened.

4. Data previous to the 1960s are from surface-based measurements and probably not as accurate as data from later years which include satellite-based measurements.

5. This graph begins with 1850, about a century after the start of the industrial revolution. It details the sharp and increasing rise in global temperatures with the development of technology from around 1910 to the present. It should be noted that the period 1850-1900 is not pre-industrial, although it is used as a proxy for pre-industrial times by the IPCC and others.

6. This graph also details an even sharper, unprecedented rise in global temperatures beginning around mid-2014 and continuing through mid-2016; followed by a leveling off of global temperatures after mid-2016. The rise from mid-2014 through mid-2016 roughly coincides with a monster El Niño episode.

7. 36-month average temperatures began to rise again in 2024.
Some notes on the IPCC, 1.5° C. and Avoiding Extinction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

1. Thousands of scientists contribute to the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Good science is not done by committee — never has and likely never will be. If Albert Einstein had to work with a committee like the IPCC, we might still be struggling without a theory of general relativity.

2. The
“IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C” (2018) notes that there are few direct temperature measurements from before the industrial revolution, so they declare that they will use 1850-1900, the earliest period from which there exist near-global observations, to represent the “pre-industrial” period which ended a century earlier.

3. I don't get it. Why don't they just drop the “pre-industrial” and say they are measuring warming from the latter half of the 19th Century? And just how do they know that 1850-1900 is a good representation of pre-industrial temperatures when there are so few direct measurements? And which part of the pre-industrial period are they talking about? This is important. The historical record shows periods, such as during the 14th and 15th Century, in which the climate changed abruptly. (See Global temperatures: 1,700 year graph below.)

4. I think “pre-industrial” should mean before the start of the industrial revolution which is generally considered to have begun sometime between 1750 and 1800. In this case, pre-industrial should mean the period immediately before the start of the industrial revolution. I find this conflating of the second half of the 19th Century with pre-industrial times confusing at best and perhaps even a deliberate obfuscation. (Sorry folks. Consider this as coming from an unrepentant paranoid conspiracy theorist.)

(New Feb. 2024)
5. Indeed, a study of 300-year-old sponges by Malcolm McCulloch suggests that the
Earth had warmed by 0.5°C by the latter half of the 19th Century. This would throw all pronouncements about global warming since pre-industrial times off by −0.5°C.

(New Jan. 2025)
6. And further, by whose estimate? As noted above, estimates by NOAA and Copernicus Climate Change Service for the warming of year 2024 from the 1850-1900 base differ by a whopping 0.15°C.

(New Jan. 2024)
7. I note that climate scientists and other commentators now tend to use phrases like “reference period” or “surrogate” to describe the relationship between the pre-industrial period and the period: 1850-1900. This lends some clarity to the situation.

8. Whereas the temperature differences between pre-industrial times and 1850-1900 are still thought to be negligible (in spite of Sponge Bob) and we estimate the 20th Century average at 0.16° C. above the 1850-1900 period, the latest ten years (2015-2024) measure an average 1.00° C. above the 20th Century average for a total of 1.16°C. Who says global warming is a hoax?

9. Note: NOAA has recently posted global temperature anomaly estimates going back to 1850. This makes the above computation considerably easier:
a19(y,m) = a20(y,m) − average(a20(y',m'), y'=1850...1900, m'=m) where:
a20(y,m) = anomaly of year y, month m from the 20th Century average for all months m'=m and

a19(y,m) = anomaly of year y, month m from the 1850-1900 average for all months m'=m.
Why 1.5° C.?

1. Based on the recommendations of the IPCC, the Paris Climate Agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5 C. above pre-industrial (later redefined as 1850-1900) levels. So what's the big deal about 1.5° C. anyway?

2. If (unlike yours truly) you are a normal human being, your body temperature is probably around 37° C. (98.6° F.) Now raise your body temperature 1.5° C. At 38.5° C. (101.3° F.) you are probably feeling sick and better go to bed and drink plenty of fluids. Now raise your temperature another 0.5° C. At 39° C. (102.2° F.) you are feeling terribly weak, dizzy and disoriented. Suppose your temperature goes up yet another 2° C. At 41° C. (105.8° F.) you will die, if your body temperature does not come down very quickly.

3. The analogy is not exact. Gaia (The Living Earth) is much more resilient than we puny humans. She has weathered wilder swings in temperature than this. The climate at 4° C. above pre-industrial levels would be very inhospitable to human “civilization,” with monster hurricanes, floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events which would dwarf anything on Earth today. A 4° C. rise in temperature would cause crop failures, famine, disease, and likely, wars over Earth's dwindling resources. It's very unlikely that many of us would survive a 4° C. rise in the Earth's temperature.

Avoiding Extinction

1. In truth, I think it misguided to focus on 1.5°, 2.0° or any other number. I think it misguided to focus on the late 19th Century, pre-industrial times, or any other period. It is distracting. We already know what needs to be done; and we know that it needs to be done now. It is quite clear and simple. We must all work together now to stop warming the Earth. We must focus on drastically reducing our carbon footprint immediately. That means giving up our addictions to fighting wars, burning fossil fuels, eating meat, building with concrete, wearing fashion clothing, having lots of babies, traveling by air, etc. etc. etc. It means planting trees, nurturing forests, walking and riding bicycles, eating locally raised foods, etc. etc. etc. Are we ready to do all that? Nothing less will do. It's hard to give up so many addictions all at once; but it may just save us from extinction.

(New Nov. 2022)
2. I have never understood why militarism is so rarely mentioned as a driver of climate change. It appears obvious that the almost
$2.5 trillion the world spends annually on its militaries would make a huge contribution to climate change. Perhaps some feel that giving up war is too big a price to pay for survival of our species.

(New Feb. 2024)
3. I note that commentators are beginning to deal with the huge contributions war and militarism make to global warming. See for example:
A Multitemporal Snapshot of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Israel-Gaza Conflict, in which it is estimated that the first four months of Israel's War Against Gaza are responsible for more CO2 emissions than many countries contribute in a year. It is also estimated by Scientists for Global Responsibility that global militarism is responsible for at least 5.5% of all human CO2 emissions, and this study was done before Israel's 2024 War Against Gaza.

(New Jan. 2022)
4. Furthermore, we must all work together, as equals, all eight billion of us. Can North Americans, Europeans and East Asians work with Africans, Latin Americans, Palestinians, Haitians and Afghans as equals? Can they recognize that they have created the Climate Catastrophe, while up to now, others have borne the brunt of its deprivations? The addiction to privilege may be the hardest addiction of all to give up; yet it may prove to be most important. Unless we can give up our addiction to privilege, success would seem to be extremely unlikely.

(New Feb. 2022)
5. A study by Center for Global Development estimates that the average Estadounidense is responsible for emitting more CO2 in a day than an average Congolese emits in a year. Another study by Aimee Ambrose of Sheffield Hallam University shows that the world's richest 10% are responsible for almost 50% of global CO2 emissions; and that the gap between rich and poor is increasing. In other words, if the rich lived like the poor, our climate problems would likely be solved. However, as Ambrose points out:
addressing excessive personal consumption is something that isn t on the agenda for the government and policymakers.
(New Jan. 2022)
6. There is a lesson for us in the demise of the Greenland Norse colony that died out in the 15th Century as their North Atlantic environment turned colder. One of the major impediments to survival was a privileged caste that refused to adapt to their changing environment. Jared Diamond writes in Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed:
Norse society's structure created a conflict between the short-term interests of those in power and the long-term interests of the society as a whole. ... Ultimately, though, the chiefs found themselves without followers. The last right they obtained for themselves was the privilege of being the last to starve.
Our 21st Century global society seems to be headed down this same path. Perhaps, we can learn from the past and turn this around.

An Exercise: Especially for Climate Change Skeptics

1. Estimate from the graphs and commentary above the probability that if we continue with business as usual, the result will be the collapse of our “global civilization.” 1%? 5%? 10%? 20%? 50%? 90%? 99%?

2. Think about at what percentage value you would recommend that the world take action to reduce global warming. 1%? 5%? 10%? 20%? 50%? 90%? 99%?

3. Think about your answers to the two questions above.
Can Science save us?
1. Well, uh, Science got us into this mess. Scientists taught us how (in the words of Joseph Conrad) To tear treasure out of the bowels of the land ..., with no more moral purpose at the back of it than there is in burglars breaking into a safe. But they taught us much more than that. They taught us how to make lots of money by burning the treasure and fouling the air. They also taught us how to make bombs which would render the Earth uninhabitable by humans for centuries to come, and oh so much more.

2. So can Science save us? When someone tells you they can clean up the mess they made, but you have to pay them to do it, beware. Now we're told that scientists can geo-engineer the planet to keep it cool. Lots of money to be made on geo-engineering, which, judging by all past experiences, will create even bigger problems, that scientists will be very happy to solve for an ever-increasing price.

(New August 2024)
3. And scientists tell us they can show us how to keep on burning fossil fuels without adding CO2 to the atmosphere. However, as
Oil Change International points out, in spite of $30 billion squandered in government subsidies to the fossil-fuel industry, mostly for Carbon Storage and Sequestration, CO2 emissions continue to rise. This waste is likely to increase to hundreds of billions of dollars in the next few years.

(New August 2024)
4. Richard Heinberg points out that technology-based solutions fail, while nature-based solutions to climate change, such as biochar, are absolutely necessary to restore our degraded environment. Heinberg notes, Unlike technology, nature constantly repairs itself. It tends to clean up pollution, rather than spreading toxins.

5. In general, scientists seem unable to grasp the magnitude of what they have wrought. They appear stuck in outdated thought patterns. Can we turn this around? Theoretically, I think, Yes. In practice, Unlikely.

6. I am forever indebted to Robert C. Koehler for introducing me to this Arhuaco saying:
When you go to dig your fields, or make a pot from clay, you are disturbing the balance of things. When you walk, you are moving the air, breathing it in and out. Therefore you must make payments.
We have been disturbing the balance for a long time, without even a thought about paying for what we take. Payment is long overdue. Nature is foreclosing.

(New Jan. 2023)
7. Perhaps it is time to start treating Nature as the powerful entity she is. We think of ourselves as being in control; but I think we have it backwards. Should Nature choose to snuff out humanity, it could do so easily, without even consulting us. Perhaps we should be showing reverence for Nature. Perhaps we should be placating Nature. Perhaps it is time we understood that we are a part of Nature, an expendable part. Nature will survive without us. We cannot survive without Nature.
Discussion of Climate Crisis and Climate Catastrophe
1. Global Warming and Climate Change are objective criteria. We can measure temperature today and compare it with measurements taken 50 years ago. Likewise with rainfall, wind velocity, cloud cover, chemical makeup of the atmosphere and other factors, all of which influence climate. The terms Global Warming and Climate Change have served us well. I suggest we stick with them. There is a consensus, not only among scientists, but among all people, particularly young people, that the world is warming and the climate changing.

2. Crisis is a different matter. Crisis is subjective. Crisis implies a turning point. How do you measure degrees of Crisis? Likewise with Catastrophe. A Catastrophe is a terrible event. How do you measure degrees of terribleness? If one doesn't take advantage of a Crisis to turn in the proper direction, one can easily create a Catastrophe.

3. Indeed, that is exactly what has happened with our climate. I've been hearing for some 20 years that the Earth is warming and we must take action immediately. I'm still hearing it 20 years later. I think we are well past the Crisis stage and into Catastrophe. So what is to be done?

Facing Catastrophe

1. Let's revisit Joseph Conrad's Captain MacWhirr. Sitting in the chart room with his ship in the eye of the typhoon, he finally realizes the folly of what he has done. He understands that the worst is to come and his ship is likely to go down with all hands on board. He says to himself, half aloud, “I shouldn't like to lose her.” And indeed, he does not. Against all odds, he sails his ship safely to port, battered and bruised.

2. Like Captain MacWhirr, I, too, “shouldn't like to lose her.” And Captain MacWhirr has sound advice for us:
“Don't you be put out by anything. ... Keep her facing it ... Facing it — always facing it — that's the way to get through. ... Face it. ... Keep a cool head.”
3. It is difficult to tell people that we are in the proverbial eye of the typhoon and the worst is to come; yet, tell them we must. How are we to face the looming Catastrophe, if we ignore its true nature?

4. Panic would not be helpful. We must face the looming catastrophe with a cool head.

“Facing it — always facing it — that's the way to get through.”
The Future
1. Many have wondered what will happen to mankind as the climate continues to warm. Some say we will continue with business as usual; others say we will join the dodos and the dinosaurs. I suspect somewhere in between. Our current “civilization” is certainly unsustainable; but I see no reason why, with the grace of God, a few of us can't continue to live on Earth in much the same way as our ancestors did during the Pleistocene, which ended about 11,300 years ago.

(New late 2021)
2. Personally, I don't think this would be a bad outcome. If we are to survive at all, we must learn our place in the greater scheme of things.

3. As the effects of climate change become more extreme, it becomes harder and harder to deny them. Unfortunately, humanity does not appear to be taking the steps necessary to ensure survival into the future.

(New Nov. 2022)
4. Bill McGuire's book,
“Hothouse Earth, an Inhabitant's Guide” (2022) may help to create a sea change in public opinion. For the first time, to my knowledge, a well-respected Earth scientist has publicly stated that climate collapse is upon us and we must learn to adapt to it rather than attempt to prevent it. McGuire castigates his colleagues as “climate appeasers,” who refuse to state publicly how bad things really are, and thereby only succeed in making a bad situation worse.

(New April 2024)
5. In the wake of Bill McGuire's expos , climate scientists are coming out of the woodwork. In a recent Guardian poll of top IPCC climate scientists,
77% say that global warming will rise to at least 2.5°C above pre-industrial times, far above limits set by the 2015 Paris Climate Accords. Sadly, the articles I have seen, do not credit Professor McGuire.

Yet will I leave a remnant, that ye may have some that shall escape the sword among the nations, ... and they shall lothe themselves for the evils which they have committed in all their abominations. —Ezekiel 6:8-9 (KJV)
___________________

Unlike the graphs above, the graphs below are based on “proxy data.” That is: global temperatures are inferred from things like tree rings, ice cores, the makeup of the shells of sea critters, type of flora and fauna in the fossil record, etc.

Needless to say the graphs below may not be all that accurate; and the further back in time we go, the less accurate they are likely to be. Nevertheless they seem to be the best we have; so let's go with them.

1. This graph is derived from research by Michael Mann et al., published in 2008.

2. The baseline, 1961 to 1990 average, is approximately 0.31° C. higher than the 1850-1900 average used in the first three temperature graphs above. The scale is Fahrenheit instead of Celsius (1.8° F. = 1.0° C.). The dark gray band represents probable uncertainty.

1. This graph is from research by Shaun Marcott et al. published in 2013 and represents a probable reconstruction of temperatures over the last 11,300 years (Holocene).

2. During the Holocene, mankind learned to domesticate animals, build cities, develop written languages, cut down forests, burn fossil fuels, fight wars etc.

3. The baseline, 1961 to 1990 average, is the same as the previous graph and is approximately 0.31° C. higher than the 1850-1900 average used in the first three temperature graphs above.

4. The gray squiggly lines at the right represent the previous graph superimposed on Marcott's findings.

5. The wide band represents probable uncertainty.

6. This graph shows global temperatures rising 0.5 to 1.0° C. until approximately 7000 years ago and then falling back to a low close to the start of the Holocene. This low is generally called the “Little Ice Age” which lasted, roughly, from around 1500 to around 1900. From the Little Ice Age onward temperatures have risen sharply.

7. One problem with this graph is that the right end of the x-axis (labeled 0) is “the present.” Which year is the present? This is important with temperatures rising by perhaps 0.43° C. in the last decade.

8. It appears from this graph and the temperature graphs presented above that we surpassed the previous Holocene maximum temperature in 2015 and remain above it.

1. This graph represents a possible reconstruction of temperatures during the ice ages and the interglacial periods. (Pleistocene)

2. The scale is Fahrenheit instead of Celsius (1.8° F. = 1.0° C.) and the baseline is the average over the past millennium.

3. The Pleistocene was a succession of wide swings in temperature between ice ages and interglacials, according to this graph by as much as 16° C.

4. I have found it difficult to reconcile this graph with the previous graphs. Since the data come from ice cores, likely they do not reflect global temperatures as a whole.

5. Modern man evolved during this period, probable around 250,000 years ago. Around 50,000 years ago he began to develop more advanced technology and migrated throughout Eurasia, Africa and then Australia and even later, the Americas.

6. Since modern man has been able to survive in almost every ecosystem on the planet, it appears very likely that he will be able to survive in at least some future ecosystem.

7. The same can not be said about “civilization.” “Civilization” developed under some very specific climatic conditions that are unlikely to exist on Earth in the near future.

8. I suspect, if we have not already done so, we will surpass the highest interglacial temperatures soon. (Keep in mind that the temperature has probably risen about 0.43° C. (0.77° F.) over the past decade. (See graphs above.)

1. I don't know where this graph comes from originally. It is all over the internet.

2. 66 million years ago marks the probable demise of the dinosaurs.

3. Temperatures in the Eocene, some 50 million years ago were likely considerably higher than they are today.

4. There are no known “great extinctions” during the Eocene. Indeed, life seems to have thrived during the warm period in the early Eocene.

5. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is thought to have also been much higher during the Eocene than today.

6. The Eocene might give us some clues as to what might happen on Earth in the near future.

1. I don't know where this graph comes from either. It is also all over the internet.

2. The combination of linear and logarithmic scales on the x-axis is somewhat confusing, but allows for extra detail to be shown in more recent times.

3. 542 million years, back to the Cambrian, is a long time. Planet Earth has weathered a lot of changes. May she also weather this one.

4. Looking at these graphs, one should realize how hard it is to predict the future. Science talks in probabilities. There are few certainties in Science.

More discussion of these and other temperature graphs to be added later

###


More Climate Highlights

A few important highlights from past months

Some Meteorological Winter 2024-25 Highlights

(December 2024 through February 2025)


BY THE NUMBERS

1. The average temperature anomaly for meteorological winter 2024-25 was 1.47°C above the 1850-1900 average, second only to meteorological winter 2023-24 whose anomaly was 1.55°C. January 2025 was the warmest January on record, 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 average. February 2025 was the third warmest February on record and was the first month since May 2023 to not be among the two warmest months with that same name.

While La Niña conditions appear to be bringing surface temperatures down somewhat, surface temperatures are still abnormally high.

2. The last eleven 12-month periods ending in February (2015-2025) were the 11 warmest on record. The two most recent such 12-month periods were by far the two warmest, with anomalies of 1.43°C and 1.41°C. The anomaly for the third warmest such period ending in February 2020 was 1.19°C.

Some other models are showing significantly higher anomalies than NOAA's model. Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) computes the anomaly for the 12-month period ending in February 2025 as 1.59°C above the 1850-1900 average, as opposed to NOAA's 1.43°C.

Lately, “experts” appear to be talking about warming of 2.0°C over pre-industrial estimates, rather than 1.5°C.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological winter 2024-25 was 426.36ppm, an increase of 3.32ppm over meteorological winter 2023-24, as measured at Mauna Loa. The 12 month running average for March 2024 through Feb, 2025 was 425.12ppm, an increase of 3.43ppm over the 12-month running average for March 2023 through Feb, 2024, but below the record 3.57ppm set in January 2025 for increases in the 12-month running average over two consecutive non-overlapping 12-month periods.

Hmmm, weren't the 2015 Paris Climate Accords supposed to bring down CO2 in the atmosphere? What happened?

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index fell to −0.6 over the December through February, 3-month period, within the weak La Niña range. La Niña conditions are expected to peter out before qualifying as a full-blown La Niña episode. La Niña conditions may finally be bringing surface temperatures down slightly.

WAR

5. Ecologically, Gaza has been totally obliterated by the Israeli genocidal war machine. Gaza is now a pile of toxic rubble with 80% of its carbon-sequestering trees destroyed.

FIRE

6. The Los Angeles area has been devastated by multiple fires, driven by high winds approaching 100mph, high temperatures, low humidity, lack of rainfall, dry vegetation and insufficient water resources. Early estimates: at least 29 dead, thousands of buildings incinerated, hundreds of thousands of residents forced to evacuate, and an estimated $250 billion in damages. The death toll could end up in the thousands if you count deaths from breathing toxic smoke from burning buildings or drinking contmainated water from melted pipes.

While multi-million-dollar mansions in Pacific Palisades burned to the ground, over 75,000 unhoused called the streets and parks of Los Angeles County home. “Vengeance is mine, I will repay, saith the Lord.”

7. February wildfires in southern Argentina devastate the Patagonia region.

STORMS AND FLOODING

8. Cyclone Chido caused devastating flooding in the French colony of Mayotte which lies between Madagascar and the African mainland. Like most European colonies, Mayotte's well-being has long been ignored by the colonizing entity.

9. Floods in Haiti, the Western Hemisphere's poorest country, have killed at least 13 and affected thousands.

10. In January 2025, an intensification of the polar vortex caused unprecedented snow and cold on the northern coast of the GULF OF MEXICO. Pensacola received 8.9 inches of snow trouncing the record of 3 inches set in 1895. Temperatures dropped to 2 F at New Iberia, LA, beating the previous record of 17 F set in 2018.

11. The weather disturbance that struck the northern coast of the GULF OF MEXICO in January, crossed the Atlantic and hit Ireland, Scotland and Norway as Storm owyn with a low pressure of 939 mbar and 135 mph winds. Storm Eowyn caused two fatalities and left over one million without power. Eowyn was Europe's fifth most intense windstorm on record.

12. Mid-February floods kill at least 15 in Kentucky.

13. Floods in Peru from heavy rains have killed 46 and injured thousands.

MELTING ICE

14. Mid-February 2025 saw the lowest combined Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extent on record, at 15.76 million km2

15. The world's glaciers lost an estimates 273 billion tonnes of ice annually during the 21st Century. The rate of loss is increasing. The world's glaciers have lost an estimated 5% of their mass.

HEAT

16. The southernmost state of Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, which experienced intense flooding last May, is now in the midst of a heat wave that has forced schools to close. The city of Quara experienced wet-bulb temperatures of 50°C.

ENERGY GENERATION

17. Renewable energy is under attack in the United States as the Trump administration appears to be ending government subsidies for renewable energy and prioritizing fossil-fuel development.

18. In spite of China's unprecedented roll-out of renewable energy in 2024, China has also increased its reliance on coal, as construction of coal-fired electricity generation reached a ten-year high in 2024. Perhaps we need to focus on reducing our overall need for energy as well as providing energy from nonpolluting renewable sources.

19. According to a recent study by Howarth, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 33% more damaging to the environment than coal when considering transportation and production as well as electricity generation. Nevertheless, the US and allies blew up the Nord Stream pipeline in 2022 to facilitate the sale of US produced LNG to Europe. Now, the Trump administration threatens other countries with tariffs if they don't buy US produced LNG.

GEOENGINEERING

20. Yet another attempt to geoengineer planet Earth has ended in failure. The Arctic Ice Project which sought to place toxic reflective material over ice covered lakes in Alaska has been discontinued. Panganga Pungowiyi of the Indigenous Environmental Network remarked, “Nature is not a laboratory; it is a living entity we are in relationship with.”

CARBON SOURCES

21. While methane leaks from the arctic seabed are well-known, for the first time, massive methane leaks from the antarctic seabed have also been discovered.

22. The world's peatlands contain more carbon than the world's forests; yet, peatlands are largely unprotected and their destruction adds massive amounts of carbon to our overburdened atmosphere.

OIL SPILLS

23. Peru declared a 90-day environmental emergency due to an oil spill on its northern coast, which occurred while attempting to load a tanker.

EARTHQUAKES

24. The Chinese province of Tibet was shaken by a magnitude 6.8 earthquake, killing at least 95. To what extent melting glaciers have destabilized the fault line and contributed to the earthquake is uncertain.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

25. Global sales of electric vehicles increased by 18% in January reaching 1.3 million.

PARIS CLIMATE ACCORDS

26. The Paris Climate Accords appear to be dead. The United States has withdrawn for a second time. 95% of countries have missed the deadline for submitting 2035 climate pledges.


Some Meteorological Autumn 2024 Highlights

(September through November 2024)



BY THE NUMBERS

1. The months September through November 2024 were somewhat less anomalously warm than the corresponding three months in 2023 but far warmer than all other months of the same name. Surface temperatures are still extremely high with October and November temperatures more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.

2. The last ten 12-month periods ending in November (2015-2024) were the ten warmest on record.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological autumn 2024 was 422.75 ppm as measured at Mauna Loa, an increase of 3.49 ppm over meteorological autumn 2023.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index over meteorological autumn was −0.2 well within the neutral range. So far the predicted La Niña episode that was supposed to cool surface temperatures off has not materialized.

STORMS AND FLOODING

5. A rare category 5 equivalent Typhoon Yagi struck the Philippines, South China and Vietnam in early September killing at least 800 (mostly in Vietnam) and doing over $12 billion in damages (mostly in China). Yagi, which means goat in Japanese, is one of only four category V equivalent typhoons ever recorded in the South China Sea.

6. Hurricane Helene came ashore as a category IV hurricane in Florida's big bend area. It moved north and wreaked havoc, flooding a totally unprepared North Carolina, killing over 200 people and doing over $100 billion of damages. Floods from Helene stirred up toxins which will continue to damage both people and the environment for many years to come.

7. Hurricane Milton, which closely followed Helene, reached category V intensity. Weakening to category III by time of landfall, south of Tampa, Milton cut a swath of destruction across central Florida killing 35 and causing an estimated $85 billion in damages.

8. After killing 125 in the Philippines, Storm Trami dropped almost a foot of water on China's Hainan Island in 24 hours flooding much of the Island, before going on to make landfall in Vietnam.

9. Sea levels in China's Bohai Sea inexplicable rose over 5 feet in hours flooding the streets of Tianjin. Scientists are trying to figure out why.

10. Meanwhile in Eastern Europe, heavy rains from Storm Boris flooded Poland, the Czech Republic and much of east and central Europe, killing at least 26. Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk, blamed the flooding on beavers. (Actually by damming streams and rivers, beavers help retain water, sequestering carbon, slowing down river flows and adding resilience to wetland systems.)

11. Catastrophic flooding in and around Valencia has killed over 150 in one of Spain's worst disasters on record.

12. Tropical storm Sara causes over 10 fatalities in Central America and the Caribbean while displacing thousands.

13. After the ongoing Israeli genocide had destroyed most infrastructure in Gaza, Gazans, living in tents, have to cope with flooding made worse by climate change caused mostly by wealthy countries.

14. Catastrophic rainfall and flooding persisted through the Fall in much of Africa. Africa has suffered thousands of fatalities in 2024 from extreme weather which has impacted millions. A dam in Northern Nigeria collapsed, flooding the town of Maiduguri and washing crocodiles and snakes from a local zoo into flooded communities. 2024 was less an aberration in Africa and more a continuation of a pattern of increased rainfall over the past 5 years.

DROUGHT

15. October 2024 tied for the second driest month on record in the lower 48 US states, logging an average 0.95 inches of rain. New York and Philadelphia experienced their driest month ever.

DISEASE

16. A study of valley fever in California showed that cases tended to spike as heavy rains came after prolonged drought. Cases of valley fever which can cause respiratory illness and joint pain and, in some cases spread throughout the body and be fatal, have increased. With changes to the climate and frequent prolonged droughts, valley fever has extended its range. While drought appears to decrease valley fever cases in the short term, the net effect seems to be an increase over time.

17. In locations, where white-nose syndrome has devastated the bat population, infant mortality has risen. The connection is complex. Fungal disease killed bats, bats stopped eating enough insects, farmers applied more pesticide, more babies died. Biodiversity is important to human health.

CAPITALISM

18. Global Witness has released a study showing that at least 196 defenders of the Earth were murdered in 2023. Colombia leads the pack with 79 murders. At least 25 environmental defenders were murdered in 2023 after opposing mining operations.

19. This year's COP29 was yet another failure, variously described as a dumpster fire with planet Earth burning and a soulless triumph for the rich. COP29 was likely attended by more lobbyists than people. Poor countries reeling from climate change were offered a paltry $300 billion, mostly in loans from rich countries. This is disgusting. Poor countries must take out loans in order to try to adapt to climate change from the same wealthy countries that are responsible for climate change in the first place.

20. Two heavily-loaded Russian oil tankers sank in violent seas in the Kirch Straight between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, likely causing severe environmental damage. This might have been avoided if Russia had not been so busy fighting a war in The Ukraine.

WILDFIRES

21. September wildfires in Bolivia burned almost 25 million acres releasing more than 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and degrading air quality over much of central South America.


Some Meteorological Summer 2024 Highlights

(June through August 2024)



BY THE NUMBERS

1. August 2024 makes 15 months in a row, each one warmer than all previous months with that same name. Eight of the 15 were over 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.

2. With the close of the 2023-24 El Niño episode, surface temperatures are not quite so anomalously warm as a few months ago, but still extremely high. The average anomaly over meteorological Summer registered 1.35°C above the 1850-1900 average. Ocean temperatures as well as land temperatures have fallen slightly from previous highs.

3. The last ten 12-month periods ending in August (2015-2024) were the ten warmest on record.

4. The 12-month period ending in August 2024 was the warmest 12-month period on record, 1.50°C above the 1850-1900 average, beating out the previous two 12-month period by an insignificant fraction of one hundredth of a degree.

5. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological summer 2024 was 425.13 ppm as measured at Mauna Loa, an increase of 3.42 ppm over meteorological summer 2023.

6. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index over the June through August 3-month period was 0.1, down from a high of 2.0 during the November 2023 through January 2024 3-month period. Summer marked the end of the 2023-24 El Niño episode. While strong, the 2023-24 El Niño episode was well below the strength of the 2014-2016 El Niño. Climate models are still predicting a transition to La Niña conditions later in 2024, although not so strongly as in previous predictions. La Niña conditions favor an intense North Atlantic hurricane season.

FORESTS

7. A ground-breaking study by the US Forest Service found that in spite of wildfires, insects, drought, logging and other stressors, the world's forests have mostly maintained their ability to sequester carbon over the past 30 years. The study recommends less deforestation, more reforestation.

8. 1/2 million trees have been sacrificed for Tesla's gigafactory in Germany.

9.California's iconic Joshua trees (actually yuccas) are under stress from increased heat and drought.

DEFENDING AGAINST CLIMATE INVADERS

10. Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and also among the countries least responsible for climate change. Lacking international support, Afghanistan adapts to climate change as best it can. Lutfullah Khairkhwa, the Taliban s deputy higher education minister remarked, Just like they invaded our country, they ve invaded our climate. We must defend our climate, our water, our soil to the same extent we defend ourselves against invasions. Maybe, if other countries were also ready to defend their climate against invaders, we could reverse climate change.

HUNGER AND THIRST

11. Almost 10% of the world's population went hungry last year. Climate change was a major factor.

12. Wildfires are contaminating our drinking water.

13. Foodbanks not only provide food, but help to defend against heat stress.

MONEY

14. The rich act like their wealth will save them from climate change; but they should fear climate change, just like the rest of us should. A freak storm, made more likely by climate change, sunk billionaire Mike Lynch's 180 foot yacht, drowning him, his daughter and four others.

CYCLONES

15. Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category V hurricane to grace the North Atlantic. Taking advantage of super-heated ocean waters, Beryl intensified from a tropical storm to a Category V hurricane in just 42 hours. Beryl devastated the Windward Islands and Jamaica before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and making its final landfall on the Texas coast, near Houston, where it caused flash flooding. Beryl was responsible for 40 fatalities with preliminary damage assessments in the billions. Remnants of Beryl, moving inland and north, caused flash-flooding in Vermont. One week after Beryl, thousands in the Houston area remained without power amidst summer heat and humidity.

16. Hurricane Debby was a large slow moving storm that brought intense flooding to Florida and the Atlantic coastal states. Debby was responsible for at least ten fatalities and over one billion dollars in damages.

17. Since Hurricane Beryl, the Atlantic hurricane season, which was predicted by all the models to be above average, has been disappointing, at least to those who like hurricanes.

18. Meanwhile, in the western Pacific Typhoon Shanshan devastates Japan.

19. And South Asia saw a rare August Cyclone which formed over land and moved out to sea.

FREEDOM

20. With the removal of dams on the Klamath River, which flows through southern Oregon and northern California, the river runs free and the salmon are free to swim upstream and spawn.

21. Beavers, whose dams provide water which inhibits the growth of forest fires, have been re-introduced to the land of the Tule River Tribe in California.

DROUGHT

22.Zambia has experienced a summer of severe drought.

HEAT AND FIRE

23. Heat-related deaths in the US have more than doubled since 1999. This is probably a large undercount as heat is often not mentioned as a contributing factor on death certificates.

24.Phoenix, Arizona has experienced a record over 100 straight days with temperatures at or above 100°F. On 56 days this summer, temperatures in Phoenix reached 110°F or higher.

25. June through August is Winter in Australia, yet Australia has been sweltering amidst unprecedented high temperatures, in some places above 40°C.

26. Some watersheds may never recover from devastating wildfires. Wildfires can contaminate drinking water for many years.

27. The great 2024 North American heat wave started in Mexico in mid-March and later moved into Central America and the western United States before moving East. The 2024 North American heat wave was responsible for record temperatures, including 120°F in Las Vegas on July 7. Hundreds have died in this heat wave.

28. On July 15, Rolla Municipal Utilities (RMU) declared a peak alert, exhorting customers to conserve energy during peak hours, 3-6pm. You can learn about RMU's peak alert program here.

29. After a wet winter, vegetation, baked dry in the heat, is burning — again. California has lost $7.7 billion over the last decade due to climate destruction. Oregon's Cow Valley and Durkee Fires have burned hundreds of thousands of acres in Eastern Oregon. California's Park Fire exceeded 400,000 acres.

30. From Spain to China, Eurasia swelters under a massive heatwave. Temperatures topped 40°C across Southern Europe. In Dubai, which flooded earlier in 2024, wet bulb temperatures (a combination of heat and humidity) surpassed 60°C. Over 47,000 people are estimated to have died of heat-related causes in Europe in 2023.

31. Fires in the Brazilian Amazon got off to an early start this year and have reached a 14-year high.

32. Bolivia has declared a national state of emergency due to wildfires that have burned millions of acres of forests and grassland.

33. While we were all watching the Olympics, thousands in Greece were forced to evacuate due to fast-moving fires.

WAR

34. In 2023 the world spent almost $2.5 trillion on its militaries. This is not only a missed opportunity to fight climate change, but adds significantly to the world's production of greenhouse gases. This is particularly true in Gaza and Europe where active wars are being fought. It seems like many prefer 100% of nothing to their fair share of what exists.

35. A dam which provided the main source of water to Port Sudan burst killing at least 30. In the midst of a civil war, Sudan has been unable to repair its crumbling infrastructure.

PROTESTS

36. Climate activists have been arrested in protests over Citibank's deadly climate-wrecking activities.

SCIENCE

37. Richard Heinberg describes in a short article why technology-based solutions to climate change don't work and why nature-based solutions are absolutely necessary. Heinberg notes, Unlike technology, nature constantly repairs itself. It tends to clean up pollution, rather than spreading toxins. Meanwhile, governments spend billions of dollars on technology-based solutions, which benefit the elite who are causing the problem in the first place, while inexpensive nature-based solutions, like biochar, are right before their eyes.

CAPITALISM

38. Artificial Intelligence is so energy intensive that Google's carbon emissions have gone up 50% in the last five years. Still, Google toots: “A more sustainable future through information and innovation.” This is an excellent example of what Richard Heinberg talks about in the article discussed above.

39. In a world that ought to be moving away from fossil fuels at breakneck speed, Shell doubles down on natural gas.

40. While we are generating more energy from wind and solar, we are also using more energy, particularly for energy-intensive applications like artificial intelligence and crypto-currency mining. Meanwhile, climate warming emissions continue to increase.

ICE

41. The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has caused over 200 rivulets to dry up, with many more at risk. Lack of water flowing from the Himalayas could severely impact food production in much of Asia. Melting of mountain ice also impacts stability leading to avalanches such as the recent landslide that killed over 50 in Nepal.

42. Melting permafrost is releasing more mercury into the environment than previously thought. Permafrost soil is thought to contain more mercury than all the other soil on the planet, plus all the oceans and the atmosphere. Mercury is an environmental toxin, particularly toxic to young children and pregnant women.

OCEANS

43. Hawaii joins California, Oregon and Washington in banning seabed mining in state waters. Indigenous peoples, including Hawaiians, are demanding a seat at the table at the International Seabed Authority.

44. With the end of the 2023-34 El Niño episode, ocean temperatures have fallen slightly from their previous peak, but still remain very high.

FLOODS

45. “Hoisted by his own petard:” After cutting $205 million from Florida's stormwater, wastewater, and sewer projects budget, Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency due to heavy flooding in southern Florida.

46. Speaking of being up to your ass in alligators, monsoon rains in South Asia and hurricanes in North America have led to flooding and crocodile invasions of coastal cities.

47. Nashville, Illinois, a town of 30,000, 50 miles east of St. Louis, was evacuated as heavy rains caused a dam above Nashville to overflow and inundate the town. No injuries have been reported. Over 200 dams in the United States have failed since 2000.

48. Heavy rains paralyze Toronto, Canada's largest city.

49. From Delhi to Mumbai to Kerala, India experiences devastating floods and landslides.

50. The Sahara desert, the world's largest desert, has received rare unexpected rainfall this summer.

51.Yemen, which typically receives little rainfall, was hit by summer rainfall that caused flash-flooding and landslides, killing at least 27.

52. Twentynine Palms in the Mojave Desert, was hit by hail and intense rain causing flash-flooding.

LEGAL

53. Six months after the Biden administration's pause in reviewing permits for liquified natural gas export terminals was hailed as a big win for the environment, a federal judge rules feds have no authority to pause review of permits for gas export terminals.

Some Meteorological Spring 2024 Highlights

(March through May 2024)


BY THE NUMBERS

1. Meteorological Spring 2024 was the warmest meteorological Spring on record, measuring 1.49°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average and 0.14°C warmer than the previous warmest meteorological Spring 2016.

2. Each of the last 12 months was the warmest month on record with that same name. The months: Sept. 2023 through April 2024, all broke the 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average barrier.

3. The last ten 12-month periods ending in May (2015-2024) were the ten warmest on record, with the 12-month period ending May 2024, the warmest 12-month period on record, registering 1.48°C above the 1850-1900 average. Some models claim this 12-month period broke the 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average barrier.

4. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during March 2024 was 425.38 ppm, marking an increase of 0.37 ppm in the 12-month running average as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. This is the largest month-to-month increase in the 12-month running average, going back to 1958 when record-keeping at Mauna Loa began. The 12-month running average reached 422.58 in May 2024, an increase of 3.16 ppm over the 12-month running average in May 2023.

5. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index over the March through May 3-month period was 0.7, down from the 2.0 average during the November 2023 through January 2024 3-month period , but still within the El Niño range. Climate models are predicting that this El Niño will continue to wane and transition to La Niña conditions during 2024. La Niña conditions favor an intense North Atlantic hurricane season. While strong, the current El Niño episode is well below the strength of the 2014-2016 El Niño.

SCIENCE

6. In the wake of Bill McGuire's ground-breaking book, Hothouse Earth, climate scientists are beginning to speak out. In a Guardian poll, 77% (almost 300) of the top climate scientists at the IPCC opine that global temperatures will rise to at least 2.5°C above pre-industrial times, far above limits set by the 2015 Paris Climate Accords.

LEGAL

7. 2,000 elderly women, arguing that lack of climate action violates their human rights, win case against the Swiss government in Europe's top human rights court. Does litigation help? You bet it does!

OCEANS

8. As oceans continue to warm, the Great Barrier Reef and other coral reefs are suffering what is likely to be their worst-ever case of coral-bleaching.

9. Changes in ocean currents, likely due to our fast-changing climate can cause sudden upwelling of cold water from the ocean depths, which can be deadly to marine life. This scenario is likely to have caused the great South African fish-kill of March 2021.

10. Off the charts heat in the North Atlantic has brought a new category of coral bleaching to the Caribbean and presages a violent hurricane season this Summer and Fall.

SUBSIDENCE

11. A study based on satellite images finds that 45% of China's urban areas are sinking. The problem of urban subsidence, along with sea-level rise, is not limited to China and may make many of the world's urban areas unlivable.

HEAT

12. Asia has been hit by catastrophic Spring heatwaves. Thousands of schools in the Philippines forced to close due to extreme heat. At least 30 dead in Thailand from heat stroke. Tel Aviv sets an April temperature record. And in Gaza, refugees from Israel's genocidal campaign swelter out in the open.

13. A third year of Spring heatwaves in South Asia has brought record temperatures well above 50°C to India and Pakistan.

14. A vicious heat dome settled over Mexico bringing drought and unprecedented temperatures to our good southern neighbor, killing at least 48.

DISEASE

15. While a warming climate spells disaster for humanity, certain diseases revel in it. Puerto Rico declares an emergency as dengue fever spirals out of control. Dengue has caused 1,800 fatalities in the Americas so far in 2024.

16. Valley Fever vastly expands its reach in the US southwest. H5N1 bird flu is spreading, not only among birds, but cattle too. H5N1 has infected humans and may mutate and spread throughout the human population. And the leafhopper bug devastates Argentina's corn crop.

FLOODS: Spring has brought catastrophic flooding to many locations. Here are a few links.

17. Dubai received over a year's worth of rain in one day, flooding this normally dry city.

18. Not yet fully recovered from decades of war and foreign invasions, the Afghan drought ended with a bang as heavy rains and flash flooding killed hundreds and devastated villages and farms.

19. Over 100,000 evacuated as heavy rains bring severe flooding to China's Guangdong Province.

20. Levees collapse in Central Russia as flood waters in the Ural River rise.

21. Heavy rains in east and central Africa kill hundreds and bring the water-level in Lake Tanganyika up to record heights.

22. Torrential rains in Brazil's southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul leave over 100 dead and displace over 1/2 million.

23. Flash floods, mud slides and cold-lava flows kill at least 43 in Indonesia's West Sumatra Province.

24. In the wake of heavy rains, a landslide in New Guinea may have buried thousands of people under tons of mud.

DROUGHT

25. Amidst a severe South/Central American drought, Colombians exhorted to conserve water by showering with a partner.

26. Southern Africa is in the midst of a devastating drought. Millions in Zimbabwe will go hungry this year.

27. In parts of Africa, drought resilient camels are replacing cows as the livestock of choice. Camels were introduced in the US desert southwest in the 19th Century, but haven't survived. Perhaps it is time to import camels again.

28. The mild drought we have experienced in Missouri over the past 12 months is, indeed, tiny compared to what other folks have been experiencing. But don't fret. Our time will come.

FIRES

29. Canadian wildfires are again off to an early start. They are already causing air pollution in the lower 48 United States.

30. Spring fires in the Arctic which used to be attributed to underground zombie fires left smoldering in the Fall, may be caused by spontaneous combustion as the Arctic heats up in the Spring.

31. Drought induced wildfires in the Amazon could cause total collapse of the Amazon rain forest.

CAPITALISM

32. Amidst drought in the Colorado River basin, Wall Street is buying up farmland and selling the water allotment to developments hundreds of miles away at huge profits.

33. While budgeting a paltry seven billion for solar energy, the United States remains among the world's most fossil-fuel friendly nations as the Biden administration licenses what will be the largest oil-export terminal in the United States. And in spite of pledges to stop backing international fossil fuel projects, the U.S. Export-Import Bank will provide a $500 million loan for oil and gas expansion in Bahrain.

34. Big banks have invested trillions in fossil fuel development since the 2015 Paris Climate Accords. JPMorgan Chase tops the list at $431billion, followed by Citigroup and Bank of America.

MISCELLANEOUS

35. Thawing permafrost is releasing enough heavy metals into Alaska's rivers that they are turning orange and threatening the health of riparian ecosystems.

36. The world has experienced at least 15 billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2024, 11 in the United States, including a mid-May derecho that struck Houston with 100+ mph winds, killing at least seven and blowing out windows in tall skyscrapers. A record 500+ tornadoes were sighted in May in the United States

37. Indigenous Sami reindeer herders in Norway are fighting the introduction of high voltage powerlines across their homeland. Rudolph has been complaining for years that powerlines represent an unacceptable hazard to Santa and his reindeer.

38. The use of solar-powered pumps for irrigation in water-poor locations has been so successful that it is causing aquifers to run dry.


Some Meteorological Winter 2023-24 Highlights

(December 2023 through February 2024)


1. Meteorological Winter 2023-24 was the warmest meteorological winter on record, measuring 1.56°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average and 0.13°C warmer than the previous warmest meteorological winter 2015. The three months each tied or broke the 1.5°C barrier. February 2024 became the most anomalously warm month on record, 1.63°C above the 1850-1900 average.

2. The last nine months (June 2023 through Feb. 2024) were each the warmest month on record with that same name by up to 0.42°C. The six months (Sept. 2023 through February 2024) each tied or broke the 1.5°C barrier.

3. The average temperature anomaly from the 1850-1900 period for 2023 was 1.36°C, which set a record, being 0.16°C above the anomaly for previous record-holder, 2016. Some models place the anomaly for 2023 above the famous 1.5°C barrier.

4. The last ten 12-month periods ending in February (2015-2024) were the ten warmest on record. The tenth place 12-month period ending February, 2015, was 0.09°C. warmer than the 11th place period ending in February 2010

5. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological winter 2023-24 was 423.04 ppm, an increase of 3.47 ppm over meteorological winter 2022-23, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. This is the largest increase on record from one meteorological winter to the next. The 12 month running average (Mar. 2023 through Feb. 2024) was 421.70 ppm, up 2.98 ppm from the Mar. 2022 through Feb. 2023 running 12-month average. Meanwhile, global CO2 emissions continue to rise.

6. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index over the December 2023 through February 2024 3-month period was 1.8, down from the 2.0 average over the November through January 3-month period. The climate models are predicting that this El Niño will wane and transition to La Niña conditions during 2024. While strong, this El Niño is well below the strength of the 2014-2016 El Niño.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
7. As late as October, 2023, Climate models failed to predict much of the extreme heat of the latter part of 2023.

8. Not only land temperatures; but ocean temperatures too have increased significantly in 2023. 90% of all heat trapped by greenhouse gases ends up in the ocean. Ocean heat is wreaking havoc on our earthly weather patterns. The 11 months sporting the most anomalous ocean heat are April 2023 through February 2024 (the latest 11 as of this writing).

9. Fishing boats trawling the sea floor are stirring up carbon sequestered at the ocean bottoms, possibly tripling the carbon footprint of the industry.

10. A new study of sea-sponges suggests that we broke the 1.5°C above pre-industrial times barrier years ago and that the Earth had already warmed 0.5°C by the end of the 19th Century, which is a commonly used proxy for pre-industrial times.

11. Advances in battery technology make it economically feasible to replace fossil-fuel fired electricity generating plants with renewable energy generation, combined with battery storage for times when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. In the first half of 2023, 68 gas power plant projects were put on hold or canceled globally,

12. The United States' first small modular nuclear reactor power plant project was cancelled amidst delays, cost overruns and technological advances in battery technology.

13. Rising sea levels and melting glaciers are threatening to uncover and spread nuclear waste buried long ago by the United States in Greenland and the Marshall Islands.

14. Greenhouse gas emissions during the first two months of Israel's War Against Gaza amount to at least 281 thousand tonnes, more than the annual output of many countries. 99% of these emissions can be attributed to Israel, with only a minuscule amount stemming from Hamas and Islamic Jihad rockets. Almost half of these emissions are attributable to US supply flights to Israel. 281 thousand tonnes is probably a gross under-estimate, as it does not include the entire war supply chain.

15. Indeed, we are only beginning to come to terms with the vast amount of climate-wrecking emissions that global militarism wreaks upon us. Pundits have been babbling for some time about how climate change impacts our security and well-being. Little has been said about how war and militarism contribute to climate change. Perhaps 5% or more of greenhouse gas emissions are attributable to militarism. In truth, militarism makes us less secure in oh so many ways.

16. A new study estimates that Climate Change has killed 4 million people so far in the 21st Century, and that's likely a gross underestimate.

17. COP28 was yet another failure. Fossil-fuel interests and their lobbyists again got what they wanted as COP28 failed to provide any significant remedy for the ongoing climate catastrophe.

18. The world experienced 63 climate disasters in 2023, each costing a billion dollars or more. The previous record was 57 billion dollar disasters, set in 2020. The deadliest was Medicane Daniel, a hurricane-like storm in the Mediterranean, which killed over 4,300 in Libya and Greece (mostly in Libya). The most expensive was Typhoon Doksuri which caused 18.2 billion dollars in damages in China and dumped almost 30 inches of rain on Beijing, almost 50% more than Beijing's annual average.

19. The United States also set a record in 2023, experiencing 28 extreme weather disasters in 2023, each costing at least one billion dollar in loses. Leading the pack was the drought and heatwave in the South and Midwest which was responsible for $14.5 billion of the total $92.9 billion in loses and 247 of the total 492 fatalities. The previous record holder, 2020, experienced 22 such disasters.

20. The Smokehouse Creek Fire in the Texas Panhandle, driven by high winds and soaring temperatures, burned over 1 million acres killing two and forced the evacuation of the Pantex plant where nuclear bombs are manufactured. Smokehouse Creek is the largest fire in Texas history and may have been caused by a rotten utility pole that blew over in the wind. It's only February, folks. Wait until July.

21. The North American Great Lakes were virtually ice-free over much of the winter. As of March 7, ice coverage was a mere 2.2%.

22. US President Joe Biden has put permits for new export terminals for liquified natural gas on temporary hold. While hailed as a huge environmental victory, beware! Given Biden's environmental record, this could easily be reversed after the November election.

23. The $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which was supposed to expand green infrastructure is being used for highway expansion and may cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

24. California was pounded by two intense atmospheric rivers in early February.

25. El Niño has brought giant waves to the California coast. Wonderful for surfers; but tough on an erosion-prone coastline.

26. The Caribbean Island of Bonaire has sued The Netherlands for failure to protect it from climate change. Bonaire is a “special municipality” of the Netherlands. Special municipality appears to be a polite phrase meaning colony.

27. The Central American drought has disrupted traffic through the Panama Canal.

28. Nearly 11,000 in Ecuador were affected by heavy rains fueled by climate change and a strong El Niño.

29. While deforestation fell by 50% in Brazil's Amazon region in 2023, deforestation increased by 43% in Brazil's Cerrado grasslands to the south and east, wiping out a significant portion of the gain in the Amazon rainforest.

30. Central Chile, which has labored under a severe megadrought for over a decade, was devastated by wildfires that killed over one hundred and caused billions of dollars in damages.

31. The Congo experienced its worst flooding in 60 years, leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.

32. A new study has found that Greenland's ice sheet is retreating at a rate 20% above what was previously thought. Greenland is losing 33 million tons of ice per hour according to this study.

33. Amidst shifts in the Earth's crust, likely contributed to by the melting of glaciers in a warming climate, the town of Grindavik, Iceland is fighting a battle against lava flows from volcanic fissures that have lay dormant for 800 years and now threaten to engulf the town.

34. The UK will exit from the 1994 Energy Charter Treaty that allows fossil fuel corporations to sue governments for “lost profits” while transitioning to clean energy technology.

35. First Eurasia, then North America: were gripped by intense winter cold. 1,000 vehicles were trapped on a major highway in Sweden for 24 hours in an intense winter storm.

36. Russia, a major global supplier of fossil-fuels, complains of Europe's so-called renewable energy transition.

37. Cyclone Jasper struck northern Australia as a category 2 cyclone, causing unprecedented flooding. Jasper was the wettest tropical cyclone on record to hit Australia, dropping over 85 inches of precipitation in places.


Some Meteorological Autumn 2023 Highlights

(September through November)


1. Meteorological autumn 2023 was the warmest meteorological autumn on record, measuring 1.58°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average and 0.39°C warmer than the previous warmest autumn 2015. The three months broke the 1.5°C barrier by 0.08°C., 0.04°C. and 0.12°C respectively..

2. The last six months (June through Nov. 2023) were all the warmest months on record with that same name by 0.14°C through 0.45°C.

3. The last ten 12-month periods ending in November (2015-2023) were the ten warmest on record. The tenth place 12-month period ending November, 2014, was an insignificant 0.01°C. warmer than the 11th place period ending in November 2010.

4. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological autumn 2023 was 419.26 ppm, an increase of 2.89 ppm over meteorological autumn 2022, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. The 12 month running average (Dec. 2022 through Nov. 2023) was 420.84 ppm, up 0.72 ppm from the Sept. 2022 through Aug. 2023 running 12-month average.

5. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index rose to a 1.8 average over meteorological autumn 2023, well within the strong El Niño range. This El Niño episode is yet to reach its height and we are already seeing unprecedented global warmth.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
6. Antarctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent of 17 million square kilometers on September 10, setting a record for the lowest recorded maximum extent since record-keeping began.

7. Climate activists are finally getting it. As long as we fight wars among ourselves, climate change will continue to run amok. Bill McKibben points out that climate change in Palestine and Israel far surpasses the global average.

8. Perhaps the one good thing about the Russo-Ukrainian War is that some so-called environmental activists are waking up to war's tremendous devastation of the climate and the environment. Unfortunately, the purpose of this moment of lucidity often seems to be to blame greenhouse emissions from the Russo-Ukrainian War on Russia. The US military remains the largest single user of fossil fuels, responsible for the most greenhouse-gas emissions.

9. The most powerful storm on record in the Black Sea hit Russia and the Ukraine, killing three and devastating infrastructure. Maybe they should think about a truce so both sides can try to recover from the ravages of global warming.

10. At least 177 environmental activists were murdered in 2022. Colombia led the world with 60 murders, followed by Brazil and Mexico.

11. Authorities in The Netherlands attacked over 10 thousand climate activists with water cannons, as they demonstrated against climate-wrecking fossil-fuel subsidies.

12. Teens in South Baltimore, having blocked a proposed waste incinerator from locating in their neighborhood, are now taking on the coal industry, which has been polluting their neighborhood.

13. Grassroots organizing kills plans for wasteful, dangerous carbon dioxide pipeline across five mid-western states.

14. The Missouri Public Service Commission approved the Grain Belt Express transmission line, which, when completed, will bring clean renewable energy to Missouri and other states. Great Rivers Environmental Law Center's attorney, Sarah Rubenstein, argued the case before the Public Service Commission.

15. According to a UNICEF study, in the six years, 2016-2021, 43 million children were made homeless due to extreme weather.

16. Amidst out-of-control global warming, Texans vote billions of dollars for fossil-fuel expansion. Expansion of climate-wrecking fossil-fuels is something the United States, Russia, big banks and other petro-states apparently agree on.

17. After devastating summers fires, Medicane Daniel (a hurricane-like storm in the Mediterranean) flooded Greece, killing over ten. The town of Pelion, Greece received 25 in. of rain in 13 hours.

18. Medicane Daniel went on to devastate Libya, killing tens of thousands as two decrepit dams failed, flooding the city of Derna with a wall of water 20 ft. high . This would likely not have happened, but for the NATO incited 2011 coup, after which Libya, once one of the wealthiest, most stable countries in Africa, descended into civil war becoming a “failed state.” Hillary Clinton famously quipped of Libya's Muammar Gadafi, “We came. We saw. He died.” She might have added along with tens of thousands of others.

I know of no better example of the destructive confluence of war and climate change. They are inextricably linked, each one feeding upon the other.

19. South American drought has sent water levels in the Amazon River down to their lowest point in over a century.

20. And to the South, in Brazil's Paran State, heavy rains displaced 70,000 people.

21. After years of drought, heavy rains in Somalia and throughout the Horn of Africa kill 110 and displace 770,000.

22. A glacial lake in northern India overflowed its banks amid heavy rains causing flash flooding that killed at least 70.

23. Hurricane Otis slammed into Acapulco as a Category V storm packing 165 mph winds. Otis killed at least 48, causing estimated damages in excess of $10 billion. Otis is the only hurricane in recorded history to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico as a Category V storm.

24. Hong Kong flooded after recording its heaviest rain since record-keeping began.

25. Wildfires that burned this summer in Canada emitted more CO2 than the entire Canadian economy, perhaps three times as much. Some of the fires continued to burn into the Fall.

26. Like crypto-currencies, artificial intelligence requires huge inputs of power, perhaps equivalent to a country the size of Sweden. Like crypto-currencies, artificial intelligence makes an outsized contribution to global warming. (Doesn't sound very intelligent to me.)


Some Meteorological Summer 2023 Highlights

(June through August )


1. Meteorological summer 2023 was the warmest meteorological summer on record, measuring 1.29°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average and 0.23°C warmer than summers 2019 and 2020 which tied for second place. June, July and August 2023 were the warmest Junes, Julies and Augusts by 0.13°C, 0.21°C and 0.25°C respectively.

The above estimate is from NOAA. Copernicus Climate Change Service estimates Summer 2023 to have been even more horrendous.

2. The last nine 12-month periods ending in August (2015-2023) were the nine warmest on record. The ninth place 12-month period ending August, 2015, was 0.07°C. warmer than the tenth place period ending in August 2010.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological summer 2023 was 421.71ppm, an increase of 2.75 ppm over meteorological summer 2022, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. The 12 month running average (Sept. 2022 through Aug. 2023) was 420.12 ppm, up 0.69 ppm from the June, 2022 through May, 2023 running 12-month average.

This is the first time the 12 month running average has exceeded 420 ppm, which is 50% greater than the 280 ppm concentration, widely believed to represent pre-industrial times.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index rose to a 1.1 average over meteorological summer 2023, within the moderate El Niño range. The El Niño episode has barely begun and we are already seeing unprecedented heat waves and fires.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
5. Meteorological Summer 2023 experienced the longest, most intense, most ubiquitous heatwave ever recorded. Every continent felt the effect of this unprecedented heatwave. There have been so many records broken, so many disasters recorded, that it is hard to know where to begin and where to end.

6. Canadian wildfires have been burning all summer long. Smoke from Canadian fires blanketed the northeast United States. New York City experiences its worst air quality ever.

7. 16 young Montana residents have won a court battle with Judge Kathy Seeley upholding their right to a clean and healthful environment. Plaintiffs sued the State of Montana for violating their constitutional rights to a healthy environment and won!. (Held v. Montana). The suit was filed in March 2020. It took over three years for the suit to come to trial.

8. Funds from wealthy countries to help the third world fight climate change and adapt to global warming are being used to build coal-fired electric plants, airports, chocolate shops, ... you name it. Anything goes. Just another scam like Carbon Capture and Sequestration and net-zero.

9. Top oil and gas companies are making record profits amid disruptions from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Exploration for new oil and gas fields is also up as profits are plowed back into future production. Meanwhile, renewables have been all but forgotten.

The G20 nations have plowed at least $1 trillion dollars into oil and gas subsidies.

10. Typhoon Doksuri has brought intense flooding to Beijing. China hopes to supplant the US as the world's chief hegemon. Better do something about global warming first. There is no need for a hegemon on Hothouse Earth.

11. Australia has experienced its warmest Southern Hemisphere Winter on record. Wait until December and see what happens.

12. Phoenix, Arizona has become all but unlivable due to the intense summer heat and drought. 2023 set a record with an overnight low of 97°F.

13. The horn of Africa has been under a severe multi-year drought. The Somalian port city of Hobyo lies buried in sand.

14. Antarctica experienced its lowest Southern Hemisphere Winter sea ice extent on record in 2023. Thousands of penguin chicks died because of the warming climate.

15. Ocean temperatures off the coast of Florida reached hot-tub levels, 101.1°F.

16. Youth protesting against the financing of fossil fuels by international bankers as they met at Jackson Hole, Wyoming were brutalized by police.

17. Heat and drought in Latin America have devastated agriculture and fueled migration to the US and Canada.

18. Heat, Fire and Floods have plagued Europe all summer long, although much of Europe has been too busy fueling the Russo-Ukrainian War to pay much attention to the threat of extreme weather.


Some Meteorological Spring 2023 Highlights

(March through May)


1. Meteorological spring 2023 was the third warmest meteorological spring on record, measuring 1.23°C warmer than the 1850-1900 average.

2. The last nine 12-month periods ending in May (2015-2023) were the nine warmest on record. The ninth place 12-month period ending May, 2015, was 0.04°C. warmer than the tenth place period ending in May 2010.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological spring 2023 was 422.77ppm, an increase of 2.77ppm over meteorological spring 2022, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. The 12 month running average (June, 2022 through May, 2023) was 419.44 ppm, up 0.7ppm from the March, 2022 through Feb., 2023 running 12-month average.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index rose to a neutral 0.1 average over meteorological spring 2023, bringing to an end the three year long La Niña episode.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
5. A transition to El Niño conditions and temperature anomalies above 1.5°C are expected for later this year.

6. Country Music icon, Dolly Parton, performs her own song on global warming, World on Fire. “Liar, liar, the world's on fire. Whatcha gonna do when it all burns down.”

7. Cyclone Freddy, sets record as the world's longest lived cyclone. Freddy formed off the western coast of Australia in early February, traversed the Indian Ocean, devastated Madagascar, Malawi and other African countries, and finally dissipated in mid-March

8. Floods in the Congo kill over 400.

9. Category 5-equivalent Cyclone Mocha struck Myanmar and Bangladesh killing hundreds and affecting millions. A camp for Rohingya refugees was particularly hard hit.

10. After a multi-year drought that killed tens of thousands in 2022 alone, the Horn of Africa has experienced torrential spring rains. 90% of the inhabitants of Beledweyne in Somalia were forced to evacuate, as the Shabelle River overflowed its banks inundating the town.

11. Heavy Rains in Ecuador affect 80,000 people.

12. Fort Lauderdale, Florida received over 25" of rain in a 24 hour period flooding the city.

13. Heavy rains which started in December in the drought-parched Southwest United States, continued into March causing flooding and landslides, while alleviating drought.

14. Typhoon Mawar, the strongest Northern Hemisphere cyclone ever recorded in May, passed just north of Guam causing power outages and evacuations.

15. Floods in northern Italy kill 13.

16. The carbon footprint of the first year of the War in Ukraine has been estimated at 155 million metric tons. The over $100 billion spent on the war represents a lost opportunity to prevent further warming of our climate.

17. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced yet another report issuing dire warnings if we don't cut our greenhouse gas emissions, while never once mentioning war as a driver of climate change.

18. A brutal heat wave, said to be the worst April heatwave in Asian history devastated Eurasia and North Africa from Portugal to Vietnam.

19.Shanghai experienced its hottest May temperature on record, as China appears set for yet another brutally hot summer.

20. Warming temperatures fuel Canadian wildfires from the West to the East. Fires in the Canadian Province of Nova Scotia are said to be the worst fires Nova Scotia has ever experienced.

21. Spring saw an unexpected rise in ocean temperatures. March 2023 was the third warmest March over ocean surfaces, 0.03°C behind first place 2016; but April 2023 was the warmest April by 0.05°C and May 2023, the warmest by 0.08°C. Apparently, no one knows why; but it bodes ill for a warming planet. We'll see what happens in the summer.

22. In spite of paying lip-service to “net-zero,” major US banks continue to finance fossil-fuel expansion and the US government continues to green-light climate-wrecking projects, like the recently approved Willow Project to develop Alaska's north slope oil, the Mountain Valley Pipeline which was part of the “debt ceiling agreement,” and the export of Liquified Natural Gas to Europe in the wake of the War in The Ukraine.

23. Industrial strength solar farms in the California desert destroy fragile desert ecosystems releasing carbon stored underground into atmosphere.

24. Chad was the nation with the worst air quality in 2022; Lahore, Pakistan was the city with the worst air quality in 2022, according to IQAir report.

25. A World Meteorological Organization study found that over 90% of deaths from extreme weather have occurred in the third world (global south).

26. Over 190 nations agree to UN High Seas Treaty to protect marine ecosystems and marine life.

Some Meteorological Winter 2023 Highlights

(December 2022 through February 2023)


1. December 2022 through February 2023 was the seventh warmest meteorological winter on record, measuring 0.89°C warmer than the 20th Century average.

2. The last nine 12-month periods ending in February (2015-2023) were the nine warmest on record. The ninth place 12-month period ending February, 2015, was 0.09°C. warmer than the tenth place period ending in February 2006.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during meteorological winter 2022-23 was 419.61 ppm, an increase of 1.55 ppm over meteorological winter 2021-22, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. The 12 month running average (March, 2022 through February, 2023) was 418.75 ppm.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index rose to -0.7 over meteorological winter 2023, from -1.0 during meteorological fall. still within the weak La Niña range. This makes three winters in a row in which La Niña conditions prevailed. Monthly temperature anomalies have been mostly within the top ten in spite of the extended La Niña which could be expected to bring cooler temperatures. La Niña conditions are predicted to end this Spring, transitioning to neutral and possibly to El Niño by the summer..
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
5. February wildfires, amid heat and drought, devastated Chile, burning over one million acres. Chile has experienced a megadrought for over a decade.

6. T rkiye (formerly Turkey) and Syria were hit by an earthquake and series of aftershocks that killed over 55,000 people. What part global warming and the melting of glaciers in nearby mountains might have played in this tragedy are unknown.

7. February 2023 saw a record low for sea ice in the antarctic.

8. On New Year's Day heat records fell all over Europe. This may be the most extreme heat wave in European history.

9. A study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that climate change has made many in poor countries too poor to even migrate.

10. Global Warming may have contributed to 8,000 shootings in 100 US cities according to a recent study.

11. Upstate New York experienced deadly blizzards this winter, including a late December blizzard which dumped up to 52 inches of snow on Buffalo New York, killing at least 37.

12. New Zealand's largest city, Auckland, experienced its wettest month in 170 years of record keeping. On Jan. 28, Auckland s Albert Park reported over eight inches of rain during a six hour period. January floods were fueled by a marine heat wave, warming ocean temperatures up to 6°C.

13. On February 3, Mt. Washington, New Hampshire recorded a wind chill of -108.4, the coldest ever recorded in the United States.

14. Over 1,000 methane super-emitting events were recorded in 2020, mostly from oil and gas extraction sites. The worst event was a leak of 427 metric tons of methane an hour in August, near Turkmenistan s Caspian coast. A site in Iraq near Basra emitted 356 metric tons per hour. Methane is 86 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over a period of 20 years. Failure to plug these leaks could keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C out of reach.

Some 2022 Highlights (mostly December)

1. December 2022 was the eighth warmest December on record, measuring 0.80°C warmer than the 20th Century average.

2. The last eight 12-month periods ending in December (2015-2022) were the eight warmest on record. The eighth place 12-month period ending December, 2018 was 0.08°C. warmer than the ninth place period ending December 2014.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in December, 2022 was 418.95 ppm, an increase of 2.24 ppm over December, 2021, as measured at the Mauna Loa and Maunakea sites. The 12 month running average (January, 2022 through December, 2022) was 418.56 ppm.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index rose to -0.9 for the three month period, October through December, 2022, within the weak La Niña range. This makes three winters in a row in which La Niña conditions prevail. Monthly anomalies have been mostly within the top ten in spite of the extended La Niña which could be expected to bring cooler temperatures. La Niña conditions are predicted to end in the Spring.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
5. The United States suffered 18 different billion-dollar weather-related disasters in 2022. Hurricane Ida led the pack piling up over $100 billion in damages, followed by the western drought which weighs in at $22 billion in damages. Many other countries also suffered tremendous weather-related loses in 2022, most notably, Pakistan. At the height of the flood, 1/3 of Pakistan lay under water.

6. Alaska saw over three million acres go up in smoke in 2022; Meanwhile, California lost only 364,000 acres to fire in 2022, less than 10% of the four million acres lost in 2020.

7. California has been bone dry for years; but in late December, the rains came with a vengeance, and continued into January causing devastating floods in much of the State.

8. Global Warming may have contributed to 8,000 shootings in 100 US cities according to a recent study.

9. A late December blizzard dumped up to 52 inches of snow on Buffalo New York, killing at least 37.

10. My apologies for neglecting to mention the tremendous July flooding in St. Louis in previous posts.

11. While climate-related disasters struck all over the world in 2022, Nature appears to have been particularly unkind to the United States; but then we continue to pollute her atmosphere with climate-warming greenhouse gases. Nature bats last.

Some July-Nov. 2022 Highlights)

1. November 2022 was the ninth warmest November on record, measuring 0.76°C warmer than the 20th Century average.

2. The last eight 12-month periods ending in November (2015-2022) were the eight warmest on record. The eighth place 12-month period ending November, 2018 was 0.07°C. warmer than the ninth place period ending November 2010.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in November, 2022 was 417.51 ppm, an increase of 2.50 ppm over November, 2021, as measured at the Mauna Loa site. The 12 month running average (December, 2021 through November, 2022) was 418.37 ppm.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index held steady at -1.0 for the three month period, September through November, 2022, still within the moderate La Niña range. This makes three winters in a row in which La Niña conditions prevail. Monthly anomalies have been mostly within the top ten in spite of the extended La Niña which could be expected to bring cooler temperatures.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
5. COP27, like COPs 1 through 26, ended without a global plan for phasing out oil and gas emissions. COP27 approved in theory reimbursing countries that have contributed least to and suffered most from global warming. However, no agreement was reached as to how this would happen.

6. Scientists at Lawrence Livermore briefly achieved fusion ignition, in which they got more energy out of the fusion of hydrogen nuclei than they put into it. But don't get your hopes up. We are still decades or more from commercial fusion energy.

7. Sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines probably resulted in the single largest release of methane into the atmosphere in recent history. Over a 20 year period, methane is 86 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Reducing emissions definitely plays second fiddle to fighting wars.

8. Bill McGuire's recently released book, Hothouse Earth, an Inhabitant's Guide, probably marks the first time a respected Earth scientist noted publicly that climate collapse is upon us now and we would do well to adapt to it rather than trying to wish it away.

9. Hurricane Ian cut a path of destruction across central Florida killing 150 and doing over $50 billion of damages. Interestingly, Babcock Ranch, a solar powered town 12 miles from Fort Myers built for climate resiliency sustained only minimal damage.

10. Glacial melt and monsoon rains, following on the heels of brutal Spring heat, caused summer flooding which left 1/3 of Pakistan under water killing over 1,700 and causing $15 billion of damage.

Some June 2022 Highlights

1. June 2022 was the sixth warmest June on record, measuring 0.87°C warmer than the 20th Century average.

2. The last eight 12-month periods ending in June (2015-2022) were the eight warmest on record. Eighth place June 2015 was 0.07°C. warmer than the ninth place June 2010.

3. The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in June, 2022 was 420.99 ppm, an increase of 2.05 ppm over June, 2021, as measured at the Mauna Loa site. The 12 month running average (July, 2021 through June, 2022) was 417.39 ppm.

4. The El Niño / La Niña (ONI) index rose to -1.0 for the three month period, April through June, 2022, still within the moderate La Niña range. This may be a sign that the current moderate La Niña episode could continue through the summer and possibly into a third year. Global temperatures have remained high in spite of the ongoing La Niña episode. La Niña episodes typically bring cooler global temperatures.
La Niña conditions (index of -0.5 or lower) tend to bring cooler global temperatures, while El Niño conditions (index of 0.5 or higher) tend to bring warmer temperatures.
5. From Germany to China to Australia, as planet Earth continues to heat, and war disrupts energy supplies, nations turn to coal for energy, thereby further over-heating planet Earth.

6. The Supreme Court of the United States has gutted the EPA and the US government's ability to protect life on Earth from climate change.

7. Yellowstone National Park is closed for the foreseeable future. Heavy rain and warm temperatures on top of a deep, melting Spring snowpack led to devastating floods.

8. On the night of June 10, Phoenix experienced a LOW temperature of 90°F. It's only June. Who knows what July and August will bring? Cities, like Phoenix, are fast becoming unlivable due to extreme heat.

9. Iconic rivers and lakes in the US Southwest are all but disappearing due to long-term drought and heat. The Rio Grande, the Colorado River, Great Salt Lake, Lake Mead and Lake Powell are all shrinking and may soon disappear entirely.

10. Thousands of cows in Kansas died from extreme heat. Meanwhile, in Ethiopia, 1.5 million cows have died due to a prolonged multi-year drought.

Perhaps, this is a sign we should switch to a more vegetarian diet. Cows are heavy producers of the powerful greenhouse gas, methane.

11. The remnants of early season Hurricane Agatha which struck Oaxaca on May 30, killing 11, reconstituted themselves in the Caribbean (after a sex change) as tropical storm Alex, killing four in Cuba and flooding parts of southern Florida.

12. Afghanistan, still suffering from hunger and the ravages of a recent earthquake, is struck by flash flooding which killed 19.

13. Bangladesh and Eastern India continue to experience devastating floods. Much of Bangladesh, a low-lying country, may soon be under water.

14. Spain has been devastated by wildfires, heat and drought. The heatwave extends over much of Europe.

15. The Amazon has suffered its worst six months of deforestation in the first half of 2022, 80% greater than the first half of 2018. June was a particularly bad month for the Amazon.